Every corporation becomes an AI company; Emad on distillation and the RSI loop

Um, any other thoughts on the release rate on models?

Well, I think there's a really interesting uh, you know, battle royale brewing between — you know, every corporation is going to need to become an AI company fundamentally. And to me, the bellwether is Moderna, uh, because it's right across the street and they're very AI forward, and you know, they exist to solve diseases, discovering RNA vaccines and other biotech breakthroughs. They have huge amounts of machinery. So they're not going to be crushed by an AI foundation model company anytime soon, but they need to become either an AI company partnered with Anthropic or OpenAI, or develop their own models internally starting with the open source that's available.

And so Alex Karp went on that Palantir rampage saying get some cojones and become an AI company or die. And so every corporate CEO has reacted to that and they're now deciding. So, OpenAI responded by saying, hey, we have a new deal here where you can rev share with us and we'll be your AI forever hereafter, but we'll let you live. Um, and so right now we're on the crossroads of those two things.

So I think that the new models will come out faster and faster and faster because right now there's too much parity with the Chinese open source models, and they need a lot more separation in order to make that rev share case stick and convince corporate America, corporate world, and — nationally, you know — entire sovereign nations to trust them to be their AI partner for the next hundred years as opposed to developing their own. So that's really pushing it, and that's why in the Polymarket you're seeing these dates are, you know, pretty heavily weighted toward very, very soon, because they need that separation.

Uh, Emad, close us out here.

I'm kicking myself for not going on Polymarket for the Millennium Prize solutions. You know, you get too busy.

That was — that was absolutely — we'll always have Yang-Mills, Emad.

Yang-Mills is next. That's another thing. Um, it's September 29th is the next one for OpenAI. Like, it's the DevDay. They're going to release it then. So, there's some easy money for people.

Not investment advice, not betting advice.

Not investment advice.

Yeah. This is an investment — this is betting, right? But look, um —

Even worse, gambling.

Yeah. Yeah. You have to kind of look at it this way. OpenAI now have a model that can solve Navier-Stokes. Obviously, it can solve reinforcement learning. And so what happens is they have this pre-trained Astra and then they're like, okay, we want to make it a bit better. Hey, mega Navier-Stokes model, make it better. Boom, you get more capability, more capability, until it approximates that capability.

Similarly, Anthropic will have Mythos 5.2 or 5 or whatever their unreleased model, because when you train a model on 100,000 GPUs, it doesn't serve at the speeds that you see Astra. The mathematics doesn't make sense. We know that they actually have a bigger model that they distill down to the model that we get. And now they figured out how to make that bigger model have a leap forward, which is this RSI loop. I mean, as Alex said, you're going to get daily releases probably by the —

I've been trying to say that when you say it with a British accent and a super high IQ, it just is more likely to resonate with the audience.

But it's such an important fact. I'm so glad you said it.