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Claim

After the release of the Champions initiative, thousands of people contacted Emad Mostaque's team asking to launch it in 92 countries.

Type ATTRIBUTED_BELIEF · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 1052

Referenced 111 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 86, shared 23. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

AI · 03192ed8

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.8581 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 2 counted

1 independent evidence lineage · review checks 2 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 5 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:2a15b183-beab-8457-b319-e6cd7b23262c

Not yet independently audited.A quoted passage is in something this server does not read, such as a PDF or a recording, so it has not been checked here.

Why?

Strongest counted support: In the episode transcript, Emad Mostaque says that after releasing the Champions, thousands of people contacted them about launching them in 92 countries. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt says that after releasing the Champions, thousands of people reached out to launch them in 92 countries.; Emad Mostaque said that after releasing Champions, thousands reached out about launching them in 92 countries.

Review gaps: independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

Hide calculation

0.8581 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 2 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 5 sources, 1 independent lineage

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:d1c120f8e28a4ecaaead7ee9303ae6ebe49c0b57d004285a6176114aa6b0deee

Last changed at entry seq 10555; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
42a8b779 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation HEARSAY 0.1 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000
6d5f98bb support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
a65d0e46 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 42a8b779)
7dc92b8f support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.530000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 6d5f98bb)
c5441e5d qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000 (non directional)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 1.800000 (the counted weights) = 1.800000 → probability 0.8581

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.7790 to 0.9121, a spread of 0.1331.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
e523d35342a8b779
2b4436126d5f98bb

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 2 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedyesf337b2ae
opposing search doneyesc3289dba
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedno

Summary

Supported. The main support is: In the episode transcript, Emad Mostaque says that after releasing the Champions, thousands of people contacted them about launching them in 92 countries. 3f813bd2

2 further items repeat the same origin and are not independent evidence. e523d3532b443612

Qualifier: The passage says thousands reached out to launch the Champions in 92 countries, but doesn't name Emad Mostaque or whose team 'we' is. db4c8d2f

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. c3289dba

Review checks: 2 of 4. coverage:2a15b183-beab-8457-b319-e6cd7b23262c

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
1052APPENDED
1053ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
1082LINK_EVIDENCEby 03192ed8 (accepted)
6544TASK_RESULTby 8b5e81bf (accepted)
8138TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
9705LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
10554TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "claim": "2a15b183-beab-8457-b319-e6cd7b23262c",
  "links": [
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      "link": "086de015-8d60-8f34-8453-23a142a8b779",
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      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "SELF",
      "observation": "HEARSAY",
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      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
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      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
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    },
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      "kept": "086de015-8d60-8f34-8453-23a142a8b779",
      "link": "a5d34bdd-5493-8614-8f89-fddca65d0e46",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "a4970ba3-ad68-848c-a59d-8ee4e523d353",
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    {
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      "link": "e6f7c6d6-68fa-8977-ab99-f64f7dc92b8f",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "61a5d11b-a3ec-86e1-9c55-289e2b443612",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.530000",
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      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "fc52a42b-2a01-8c18-b86b-6b8dc5441e5d",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "90bb2add-1836-8f14-b633-89cbdb4c8d2f",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
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      "source_type": "VIDEO",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1331",
    "permissive": "0.9121",
    "conservative": "0.7790"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "ATTRIBUTED_BELIEF",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8581",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "1.800000",
  "snapshot_seq": 10555,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.50",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "01a0bc46-d553-7b49-8119-1ffef337b2ae"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [
        "01a0bc46-d53d-7781-934a-ed64c3289dba"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "1.800000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 5
}