Claim

A kill switch will not be built into any open source AI model.

Type FORECAST · truth-evaluable: no (UNRESOLVED_FORECAST) · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 1475

Referenced 142 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 139, shared 2. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

AI · 03192ed8 Policy · 03192ed8

Assessment

Not assessed

1 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted

0 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability n/a

This is a forecast that has not resolved yet.

Main unresolved issue: 5 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:31e6f117-48ae-8288-bb1b-9d04772b7877

Not yet independently audited.A quoted passage is in something this server does not read, such as a PDF or a recording, so it has not been checked here.

Related: NARROWS incoming: Supported

Why?

Review gaps: opposing search done, independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

Hide calculation

No probability. This is a forecast that has not resolved yet.

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:07c626341790d4aaaa6584fee6a029c5acff8329dd2e8e5799a9f27f945f5ee9

Last changed at entry seq 11446; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Counted as
3dd65b4f support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	— (not applicable)
57429fe9 support	relevance CONTEXT_ONLY 0.0 × observation EXPERT_ANALYSIS 0.3 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	— (not applicable)
17b5a6b6 qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	— (not applicable)
75ca85c0 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	— (not applicable)
a78ddc8a qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	— (not applicable)

prior — → log-odds —

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“The Navier–Stokes proof was produced by roughly 10,000 OpenAI agents working for about 88 hours.” · 25 claims · 20 September 2026

Evidence for

Blundin says a kill switch will not be built into any open source model.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance CONTEXT_ONLY Steps 1 Counted

A prediction by the speaker.
Speaker says a kill switch will not be built into any of the open source models.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance DIRECT Steps 1 Counted

Passage states the forecast flatly and without hedging.
The excerpt directly says a kill switch will not be built into open-source models.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance DIRECT Steps 1 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

The passage gives no date or horizon for when a kill switch would fail to appear.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

An open-ended forecast with no horizon cannot come due, so it cannot be scored either way.
The speaker says 'any of the open source models', in the present tense, not all open source models ever released.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The claim widens the speaker's remark about the models then in circulation into a universal statement about every open source model.

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

From	Relationship	To
e093c89d	NARROWS	772b7877

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	yes	0c8874f2
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	no

Summary

Not assessed. This is a forecast that has not resolved yet. coverage:31e6f117-48ae-8288-bb1b-9d04772b7877

A narrower version of this claim is supported. e093c89d

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:31e6f117-48ae-8288-bb1b-9d04772b7877

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
1475	APPENDED
1476	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
1605	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 03192ed8 (accepted)
3698	TASK_RESULT	by 03192ed8 (accepted)
4024	TASK_RESULT	by 03192ed8 (accepted)
8966	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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