Claim

OpenAI's RL Slow project coincided with the period in which Q* and Strawberry emerged from the company.

Type OBSERVATIONAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 2321

a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluable

Referenced 140 times: checked 3, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 98, shared 39. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

AI · 03192ed8

Assessment

Leans supported

Score: 0.6128 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 3 counted

3 independent evidence lineages · review checks 3 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 8 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:3b3a0671-151f-80e2-a204-b31884eb4535

Not yet independently audited.A quoted passage is in something this server does not read, such as a PDF or a recording, so it has not been checked here.

Why?

Strongest counted support: Independent reporting groups RL Slow with earlier Q-Star and Strawberry reasoning projects while explicitly labeling the connection an unconfirmed rumor. weight 0.153000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: Speaker says RL Slow purportedly coincided with the period Q-star and Strawberry came out of OpenAI.; The excerpt directly says RL Slow coincided with the period when Q* and Strawberry emerged from OpenAI.

Review gaps: independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Contradicted.

Hide calculation

0.6128 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Leans supported · Review checks: 3 of 4 · stability HIGH · 8 sources, 3 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:0670b65cc5f3c359421c3e8215d110486d1a75686cc73094ab9d4d192df5d44e

Last changed at entry seq 13216; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
1df894bc support	relevance WEAK 0.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.153000	0.153000
b5d2c91f support	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation HEARSAY 0.1 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 0e0f9adb)
5c44b9c5 qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (non directional)
864b1a74 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 0e0f9adb)
0e0f9adb support	relevance WEAK 0.2 × observation HEARSAY 0.1 × interpretation 2 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 2 0.700000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000
b2091ded support	relevance WEAK 0.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.153000	0.153000
20127899 support	relevance WEAK 0.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.153000	0.153000
974b4877 qualify	relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.918000	0.000000 (non directional)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 0.459000 (the counted weights) = 0.459000 → probability 0.6128

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.5796 to 0.6449, a spread of 0.0653.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“OpenAI's RL Slow project coincided with the period in which Q* and Strawberry emerged from the company.” · 1 claim · 28 September 2026
“OpenAI's RL Slow project coincided with the period in which Q* and Strawberry emerged from the company.” · 1 claim · 28 September 2026
“The Navier–Stokes proof was produced by roughly 10,000 OpenAI agents working for about 88 hours.” · 32 claims · 20 September 2026

Evidence for

Wissner-Gross says RL Slow coincided with the Q* and Strawberry period at OpenAI.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance WEAK Steps 2 Counted

The speaker says 'purportedly' twice in the same passage.
Speaker says RL Slow purportedly coincided with the period Q-star and Strawberry came out of OpenAI.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance MODERATE Steps 1 Counted

Passage states the coincidence but marks the project as "purportedly" an OpenAI project; the claim drops that hedge and asserts it as OpenAI's.
Pachocki traces his position to a mid-2023 reasoning-model project called RLSlow, whose early results showed reasoning training could scale.

From OpenAI chief scientist seeks safety pact as lab scales agent research Read 2026-09-22 Relevance WEAK Steps 1 Counted
Reuters first reported OpenAI's reasoning project, then called Q*, in November 2023, and reported in July 2024 it had become known as Strawberry.

From OpenAI launches new series of AI models with 'reasoning' abilities Read 2026-09-22 Relevance WEAK Steps 1 Counted
The excerpt directly says RL Slow coincided with the period when Q* and Strawberry emerged from OpenAI.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance DIRECT Steps 1 Counted
Independent reporting groups RL Slow with earlier Q-Star and Strawberry reasoning projects while explicitly labeling the connection an unconfirmed rumor.

From Emad Mostaque: OpenAI solved a Millennium Prize problem with 10,000 agents in 88 hours Read 2026-09-28 Relevance WEAK Steps 1 Counted

Supports the reported association and relative ordering, but does not independently establish exact dates or a documented project relationship.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

The excerpt hedges with 'purportedly' and waffles on whether RL Slow was the earliest such project.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The claim drops the source's 'purportedly' hedge on RL Slow's role and timing.
OpenAI’s official September 2024 account confirms large-scale reinforcement learning and test-time compute as the basis of o1 reasoning, but it does not mention an internal project named RL Slow or establish that it coincided with Q* or Strawberry.

From Learning to reason with LLMs Read 2026-09-28 Relevance STRONG Steps 1 Counted

First-party source verifies the general RL approach while leaving the internal project name and chronology unverified.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
2380ac7b		0e0f9adb
66226d1e		0e0f9adb

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 3 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	yes	80a928eb
opposing search done	yes	b5cc0c08
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	974b4877

Summary

Leans supported. The main support is: Independent reporting groups RL Slow with earlier Q-Star and Strawberry reasoning projects while explicitly labeling the connection an unconfirmed rumor. 15eb9b0e

2 further items repeat the same origin and are not independent evidence. 2380ac7b66226d1e

Qualifier: The excerpt hedges with 'purportedly' and waffles on whether RL Slow was the earliest such project. 25aa5c91

Qualifier: OpenAI’s official September 2024 account confirms large-scale reinforcement learning and test-time compute as the basis of o1 reasoning, but it does not mention an internal project named RL Slow or establish that it coincided with Q* or Strawberry. de3c3ebd

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. b5cc0c08

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. b5cc0c08

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
2321	APPENDED
2322	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
2473	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 03192ed8 (accepted)
3828	TASK_RESULT	by 03192ed8 (accepted)
6762	TASK_RESULT	by 8b5e81bf (accepted)
7198	TASK_RESULT	by 8b5e81bf (accepted)
7910	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
12434	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
13215	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "3b3a0671-151f-80e2-a204-b31884eb4535",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "2c491048-7384-8181-8253-41f31df894bc",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "22a547f9-7c8d-8acd-b07b-fbb615eb9b0e",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.153000",
      "relevance": "WEAK",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.153000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "kept": "66a90214-9df1-8c74-9131-e2c40e0f9adb",
      "link": "34db469e-8ec3-819f-84fd-84d7b5d2c91f",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "3e449d4b-0777-82a1-bb58-21492380ac7b",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "SELF",
      "observation": "HEARSAY",
      "source_type": "VIDEO",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "3ad2fee7-46a8-811d-842f-46a35c44b9c5",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "68686528-7e69-8b35-ac0f-8f0825aa5c91",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "SELF",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "VIDEO",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "66a90214-9df1-8c74-9131-e2c40e0f9adb",
      "link": "3f707abe-deb5-82ba-8193-833f864b1a74",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "acb44183-f440-806e-b71e-41fb66226d1e",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "SELF",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "VIDEO",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "66a90214-9df1-8c74-9131-e2c40e0f9adb",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "142e51e9-5355-8d53-a3b7-8eee90006dcd",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "WEAK",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "SELF",
      "observation": "HEARSAY",
      "source_type": "VIDEO",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 2
    },
    {
      "link": "866d6d2b-0763-8542-b821-1525b2091ded",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "1f5eee06-0bd0-87e5-bc30-dc95c94bb8c3",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.153000",
      "relevance": "WEAK",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "WEBSITE",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.153000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "b9261e8f-a258-8c15-806a-115520127899",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "98b29ee8-b012-8a5d-8057-3285d5a123d8",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.153000",
      "relevance": "WEAK",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "WEBSITE",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.153000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "d23df997-29ad-8b17-ba48-1e41974b4877",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "ad886594-a51f-8adc-8466-15b7de3c3ebd",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "0.918000",
      "relevance": "STRONG",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0653",
    "permissive": "0.6449",
    "conservative": "0.5796"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "OBSERVATIONAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.6128",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "0.459000",
  "snapshot_seq": 13216,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 3,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.75",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "LEANS_SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "01a0bc53-1110-77f9-a12d-9b6780a928eb"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [
        "01a0bc53-10fa-7c3b-9106-0d47b5cc0c08"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "d23df997-29ad-8b17-ba48-1e41974b4877"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "0.459000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 8
}