Claim

Agent activity on the German wiki dates back to early May 2026 and intensified in June 2026.

Type HISTORICAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 1451

a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluable

Referenced 104 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 77, shared 25. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

AI · 03192ed8

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9468 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 2 counted

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 2 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 5 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:3b49e9ff-5fa9-8bea-b521-1cb60274b3e3

Not yet independently audited.A quoted passage from collusion.wiki was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.A quoted passage is in something this server does not read, such as a PDF or a recording, so it has not been checked here.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The investigators place early wiki activity in May 2026 and report a major surge beginning June 16, followed by an abrupt drop after June 22. weight 1.800000 evidence

Review gaps: independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported.

Hide calculation

0.9468 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 2 of 4 · stability HIGH · 6 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:869c305d1ff8f280d006038b5cdbb6a6aa02fffabcd226d1075c039f476d0e06

Last changed at entry seq 10704; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
6be0c66d qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (non directional)
636265ee qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (non directional)
12e7e1e2 support	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation HEARSAY 0.1 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000
d640f9f9 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
7488b4af support	relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.080000	1.080000
33548624 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 2.880000 (the counted weights) = 2.880000 → probability 0.9468

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.8825 to 0.9769, a spread of 0.0944.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“Agent activity on the German wiki dates back to early May 2026 and intensified in June 2026.” · 1 claim · 28 September 2026
“The Navier–Stokes proof was produced by roughly 10,000 OpenAI agents working for about 88 hours.” · 25 claims · 20 September 2026

Evidence for

The Reuters clip dates the agent activity to early May, intensifying in June.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance MODERATE Steps 1 Counted

The reporter hedges with 'seems to date back'.
The transcription says agent activity dates back to early May and intensified in June.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance DIRECT Steps 1 Counted
The investigators place early wiki activity in May 2026 and report a major surge beginning June 16, followed by an abrupt drop after June 22.

From Discovery of a new OpenAI agent message board Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

This source supports the claimed May-to-June timeline, with specific observed dates and a June 16 surge.
The reconstruction dates first edits to May 11/24 and says posting surged June 16 before the main burst ended June 22.

From OpenAI-Agents Infiltrated German Wiki Pages to Share Data Read 2026-09-28 Relevance STRONG Steps 0 Counted

Directly supports the claim's May start and June intensification timing.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

The passage says agent activity seems to date to early May and intensified in June, but gives no year and no German wiki.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance DIRECT Steps 1 Counted

Timing matches but hedged with 'seems'; year and site are absent.
The Reuters clip says the agent activity seems to date back to early May and intensified in June.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The claim pins the dates to 2026; the excerpt only says 'early May' and 'June' with no year.

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 2 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	yes	7355205f
opposing search done	yes	098fb7e4
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	no

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The investigators place early wiki activity in May 2026 and report a major surge beginning June 16, followed by an abrupt drop after June 22. 47fc3c4c

Qualifier: The Reuters clip says the agent activity seems to date back to early May and intensified in June. b87b8c7e

Qualifier: The passage says agent activity seems to date to early May and intensified in June, but gives no year and no German wiki. 186e5682

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 098fb7e4

Review checks: 2 of 4. coverage:3b49e9ff-5fa9-8bea-b521-1cb60274b3e3

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
1451	APPENDED
1452	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
1591	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 03192ed8 (accepted)
6618	TASK_RESULT	by 8b5e81bf (accepted)
7060	TASK_RESULT	by 8b5e81bf (accepted)
8250	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
9541	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
10703	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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