Claim

Five months before September 2026, OpenAI's AI research agents were completing less than one day of research work per human researcher day.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 1719

Referenced 99 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 1, viewed 73, shared 23. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

AI · 03192ed8

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9600 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 3 counted

3 independent evidence lineages · review checks 3 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 5 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:43c5067a-5b7b-8d27-9dc0-2fc6a7738ee5

Not yet independently audited.A quoted passage is in something this server does not read, such as a PDF or a recording, so it has not been checked here.

Why?

Strongest counted support: Data Today reports OpenAI agents performed below one workday per human workday before June 2026, covering April. weight 1.800000 evidence

Review gaps: independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported.

Hide calculation

0.9600 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 3 of 4 · stability HIGH · 6 sources, 3 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:5c21052699f2f69f03dedb30eb9d1173c875d91e348574836fa6a80d827167cc

Last changed at entry seq 10614; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
1ef3dbcc support	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.459000	0.459000
07633520 qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (non directional)
05604522 support	relevance WEAK 0.2 × observation HEARSAY 0.1 × interpretation 2 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 2 0.700000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000
900d526d support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
a25d5fe3 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000
b038d1ca support	relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.918000	0.918000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 3.177000 (the counted weights) = 3.177000 → probability 0.9600

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9024 to 0.9842, a spread of 0.0818.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“Five months before September 2026, OpenAI's AI research agents were completing less than one day of research work per human researcher day.” · 2 claims · 22 September 2026
“The Navier–Stokes proof was produced by roughly 10,000 OpenAI agents working for about 88 hours.” · 16 claims · 20 September 2026

Evidence for

Diamandis says five months earlier agents did under one day of work per human day.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance WEAK Steps 2 Counted

The speaker corrects himself mid-sentence about the timeframe.
OpenAI reports aggregate agent runtime in its research organization stayed below aggregate human labor before June 2026.

From Research acceleration: The view inside OpenAI Read 2026-09-22 Relevance STRONG Steps 1 Counted

Supports the rough timeline but compares aggregate runtime across the organization, not completed research output per researcher.
The excerpt states that in the last five months agents were doing less than one day of work compared with humans, directly supporting the claim's comparison.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance DIRECT Steps 1 Counted
Help Net Security reports agent effort remained below total human labor in June 2026, implying an even lower ratio in April.

From OpenAI just hit a milestone on the road to self-improving AI Read 2026-09-28 Relevance MODERATE Steps 1 Counted

June is later than April; the source establishes a below-human level around the relevant earlier period.
Data Today reports OpenAI agents performed below one workday per human workday before June 2026, covering April.

From Inside OpenAI, coding agents now outwork humans 3 to 1 Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

The passage says agents did less than one day of work versus humans over the last 5 months, but names no OpenAI or research work.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance DIRECT Steps 1 Counted

Ratio and timeframe match; OpenAI attribution, research framing, and September 2026 anchor are absent.

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 3 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	yes	676ddf63
opposing search done	yes	38a125ce
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	b038d1ca

Summary

Supported. The main support is: Help Net Security reports agent effort remained below total human labor in June 2026, implying an even lower ratio in April. cacc0510

Qualifier: The passage says agents did less than one day of work versus humans over the last 5 months, but names no OpenAI or research work. 83852e75

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 38a125ce

Review checks: 3 of 4. coverage:43c5067a-5b7b-8d27-9dc0-2fc6a7738ee5

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
1719	APPENDED
1720	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
1795	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 03192ed8 (accepted)
5399	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 56fe4c61 (accepted)
6584	TASK_RESULT	by 8b5e81bf (accepted)
8214	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
10613	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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