Claim

Whether we are living inside a quantum-mechanical simulation will be formally proven undecidable.

Type FORECAST · truth-evaluable: no (UNRESOLVED_FORECAST) · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 1283

Referenced 137 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 109, shared 26. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Physics · 03192ed8 Mathematics · 03192ed8

Assessment

Not assessed

2 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 1 by the author only

0 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability n/a

This is a forecast that has not resolved yet.

Main unresolved issue: 8 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:56482749-9674-80e8-b7a5-9e90c77c1ed6

Not yet independently audited.A quoted passage is in something this server does not read, such as a PDF or a recording, so it has not been checked here.

Why?

Review gaps: opposing search done, independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

Hide calculation

No probability. This is a forecast that has not resolved yet.

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:fc6ceec53a185b72a93ab20da4e7bdcc102ca6fb7a6c0767e0c94df03d5450f2

Last changed at entry seq 11422; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
01d11f0f contradict	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 2 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 2 0.700000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.378000	— (not applicable)
cbf2a39b support	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation EXPERT_ANALYSIS 0.3 × interpretation 2 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 2 0.700000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.126000	— (not applicable)
1bf2a4c7 qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	— (not applicable)
4031b930 qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	— (not applicable)
90dadc4a support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	— (not applicable)
782b7cce support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	— (not applicable)
39cdb9d5 support	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation EXPERT_ANALYSIS 0.3 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.153000	— (not applicable)
de19f294 support	relevance CONTEXT_ONLY 0.0 × observation EXPERT_ANALYSIS 0.3 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	— (not applicable)

prior — → log-odds —

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“Whether we are living inside a quantum-mechanical simulation will be formally proven undecidable.” · 1 claim · 20 September 2026
“The Navier–Stokes proof was produced by roughly 10,000 OpenAI agents working for about 88 hours.” · 15 claims · 20 September 2026

Evidence for

Wissner-Gross predicts the quantum simulation question will be proven formally undecidable.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance CONTEXT_ONLY Steps 1 Counted

A prediction by the speaker, not a checkable fact.
Speaker expects it will be formally provable that the quantum-simulation question is undecidable.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance DIRECT Steps 1 Counted

Passage states the forecast in the speaker's own words, hedged only by "in the fullness of time" and "probably".
An arXiv paper states, as its Conjecture 1, that proving our universe is a simulation is undecidable.

From A Relative Church-Turing-Deutsch Thesis from Special Relativity and Undecidability Read 2026-09-20 Relevance MODERATE Steps 1 Counted

The authors label this a conjecture, not a theorem, so it shows the question is taken seriously rather than that it has been or will be formally proven.
Wolpert uses Rice's theorem to establish that many mathematical questions about simulation and self-simulation are undecidable.

From What computer science has to say about the simulation hypothesis Read 2026-09-20 Relevance MODERATE Steps 2 Counted

A proven result, but in a classical Church-Turing framework and about self-simulation questions generally, not specifically whether we inhabit a quantum-mechanical simulation.
The excerpt directly states an expectation that the question of living in a quantum-mechanical simulation will be formally proved undecidable.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance DIRECT Steps 1 Counted

Evidence against

Faizal and colleagues argue the universe rests on non-algorithmic understanding, concluding it cannot be a computer simulation.

From Mathematical proof debunks the idea that the universe is a computer simulation Read 2026-09-20 Relevance MODERATE Steps 2 Counted

Cuts against the forecast of undecidability: this line of work claims the question is settled negatively rather than left formally undecidable. Reported secondhand by Phys.org; the underlying paper is Faizal et al., Journal of Holography Applications in Physics (2025), arXiv:2507.22950, which I did not read in full.

Qualifications

Wissner-Gross gives no date or horizon, placing the formal proof only 'in the fullness of time'.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

No time range in the source, so the forecast has no horizon at which it could come due.
Wissner-Gross frames this as his own expectation, hedged with 'I expect' and 'probably', not as an established result.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The claim drops the speaker's modality; the source is a personal expectation, not a prediction asserted flatly.

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	yes	fee49b6c
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	no

Summary

Not assessed. This is a forecast that has not resolved yet. coverage:56482749-9674-80e8-b7a5-9e90c77c1ed6

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 1d02ad33

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:56482749-9674-80e8-b7a5-9e90c77c1ed6

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
1283	APPENDED
1284	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
1359	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 03192ed8 (accepted)
3690	TASK_RESULT	by 03192ed8 (accepted)
4007	TASK_RESULT	by 03192ed8 (accepted)
4013	TASK_RESULT	by 03192ed8 (accepted)
4021	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 03192ed8 (accepted)
8952	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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