Galedra
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Claim

The speaker asserts that AGI has arrived.

Type ATTRIBUTED_BELIEF · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 10298

Referenced 110 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 1, viewed 82, shared 26. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Not filed under any topic yet.

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.8806 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 0 counted · 2 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 0 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 3 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:61c3928a-c1c1-81d4-9df4-4f02891293ae

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 0 of 4 review checks have been done.A quoted passage from businessinsider.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: Business Insider reports and quotes Jensen Huang saying “AGI has arrived” while congratulating OpenAI on Astra. weight 1.080000 evidence

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

Hide calculation

0.8806 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 0 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 3 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:37f8edcb522f6f221fbc39ccf4bdcd6d0be76c0dbb5da343857e8fa9d5edee19

Last changed at entry seq 10337; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
2d74228b support relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.918000 0.918000
92d55ef7 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000
ae18fc32 support relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.080000 1.080000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 1.998000 (the counted weights) = 1.998000 → probability 0.8806

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.8020 to 0.9307, a spread of 0.1287.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 0 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author. No independent review yet. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedno
opposing search doneno
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedno

Summary

Supported. The main support is: FOX Business independently reports and quotes Jensen Huang saying “AGI has arrived” while congratulating OpenAI. 0bfed834

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 207f5f7d

Review checks: 0 of 4. coverage:61c3928a-c1c1-81d4-9df4-4f02891293ae

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
10298APPENDED
10299ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
10304TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
10308TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
10336LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "61c3928a-c1c1-81d4-9df4-4f02891293ae",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "1978abf6-2bff-8ae9-9a68-f4d52d74228b",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "e42afba7-fe8f-8670-b8b7-99c50bfed834",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.918000",
      "relevance": "STRONG",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.918000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "791d33d2-cc9b-8603-bd6d-5bc992d55ef7",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "e252dc75-9b01-8539-8979-37b188349258",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "SELF",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "VIDEO",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "9479ab14-9111-84b5-ac93-72f3ae18fc32",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "77c74061-2276-8364-a4e9-4a5c2729ff81",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.080000",
      "relevance": "STRONG",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.080000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1287",
    "permissive": "0.9307",
    "conservative": "0.8020"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "ATTRIBUTED_BELIEF",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8806",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "1.998000",
  "snapshot_seq": 10337,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.00",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "1.998000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}