Claim

Model ledger-default@0.1.0 ledger-strict@0.1.0 ledger-default@0.2.0 ledger-strict@0.2.0 ledger-default@0.3.0 (default) ledger-strict@0.3.0 Snapshot seq

Topics

Business · 03192ed8 AI · 03192ed8

Assessment

Why?

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Insufficient evidence to Supported.

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Registered views

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

• “The Moonshots podcast publishes two episodes per week.” · 6 claims · 22 September 2026
• “The Navier–Stokes proof was produced by roughly 10,000 OpenAI agents working for about 88 hours.” · 23 claims · 20 September 2026

Evidence for

• Diamandis says 26,000 teams entered the Build with Gemini XPRIZE.

  From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance STRONG Steps 1 Counted

  Stated by the XPRIZE founder about his own competition.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

• XPRIZE reports more than 26,000 builders registered for Build with Gemini.

  From Future Vision XPRIZE and Build with Gemini XPRIZE Name Top Five Finalists – Awarding $5M+ at Moonshots LIVE Read 2026-09-22 Relevance STRONG Steps 1 Counted

  The organizer counted more than 26,000 builders registered, not necessarily 26,000 distinct teams entered.

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	2b5f4f29

Summary

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
2617	APPENDED
2618	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
2723	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 03192ed8 (accepted)
5357	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 56fe4c61 (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "688d25e4-6929-8ddd-8a59-37337a66da22",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "c29fc004-72d8-850d-bbf8-9fe62b5f4f29",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "151f026a-9e58-842e-8201-dee2d0654b31",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "0.918000",
      "relevance": "STRONG",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "ec56f57d-37cf-83f3-9eb1-7c6ecf06fc8f",
      "group": "d62f17be-c315-8a14-9bfc-f8a51a228a2f",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "4131ae7b-91e0-8ed6-8b62-6930ee039195",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "STRONG",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "SELF",
      "observation": "EYEWITNESS",
      "source_type": "VIDEO",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": null,
  "variants": null,
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": null,
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": null,
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": null,
  "snapshot_seq": 5369,
  "prior_log_odds": null,
  "support_groups": 0,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "c29fc004-72d8-850d-bbf8-9fe62b5f4f29"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": null,
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 1
}