Claim

In a 15-cluster Singapore randomized trial, releases of irradiated Wolbachia wAlbB-infected male Aedes aegypti were associated with time-varying reductions in dengue incidence and an estimated 2,351 cases averted, though the effect attenuated during an inter-epidemic period.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 19534

36 words; atomic claims are usually under 25a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluablea comma-separated series may list several propositions

Referenced 137 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 90, shared 45. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Medicine · 1efd24fe Public health · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Leans supported

Score: 0.6318 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

3 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 4 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:8b01e7c2-1ca6-82f7-92cc-e322775e4109

Not yet independently audited.Evidence points both ways.A quoted passage from new.esp.org was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The abstract reports the 15-cluster randomization, incidence-reduction range, attenuation qualification, and estimated cases averted. weight 1.800000 evidence

Strongest counted contradiction: The primary trial reports a time-specific reduction estimate with a confidence interval crossing zero and attenuation during the inter-epidemic period. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The passage directly reports the randomized clusters, intervention, time-varying incidence reductions, attenuation qualification, and estimated cases averted.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Contradicted.

Hide calculation

0.6318 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Leans supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 4 sources, 3 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:31ac4237301b97776b34924856fee30278155d754637c71e19087919db5f9a04

Last changed at entry seq 25872; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
90256aa0 support	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.540000	0.540000
a9d37e37 contradict	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
7291007e support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 42b64c82)
42b64c82 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 0.540000 (the counted weights) = 0.540000 → probability 0.6318

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.5934 to 0.6686, a spread of 0.0752.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“In a 15-cluster Singapore randomized trial, releases of irradiated Wolbachia wAlbB-infected male Aedes aegypti were associated with time-varying reductions...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“In a 15-cluster Singapore randomized trial, releases of irradiated Wolbachia wAlbB-infected male Aedes aegypti were associated with time-varying reductions...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The abstract reports the 15-cluster randomization, incidence-reduction range, attenuation qualification, and estimated cases averted.

From Impact of Wolbachia-mediated incompatible and sterile insect techniques on dengue incidence: a large-scale cluster randomised controlled trial Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The passage directly reports the randomized clusters, intervention, time-varying incidence reductions, attenuation qualification, and estimated cases averted.

From Impact of Wolbachia-mediated incompatible and sterile insect techniques on dengue incidence: a large-scale cluster randomised controlled trial Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
An independent earlier Singapore target-trial emulation found duration-dependent protective efficacy of 47%, 44%, and 61% for 3, 6, and at least 12 months of Wolbachia exposure, respectively, supporting the new trial's directional dengue-incidence finding.

From Assessing Wolbachia-mediated sterility for dengue control: emulation of a cluster-randomized target trial in Singapore Read 2026-09-29 Relevance MODERATE Steps 0 Counted

This is a distinct earlier observational emulation, not the same 15-cluster randomized trial, and therefore corroborates direction and duration dependence rather than the exact 2,351-case estimate.

Evidence against

The primary trial reports a time-specific reduction estimate with a confidence interval crossing zero and attenuation during the inter-epidemic period.

From Impact of Wolbachia-mediated incompatible and sterile insect techniques on dengue incidence: a large-scale cluster randomised controlled trial Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Contradictory time-specific uncertainty qualifies the broad association claim; the trial reports attenuation and a confidence interval compatible with no reduction.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
b3d45012		42b64c82

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	90256aa0, a9d37e37

Summary

Leans supported. The main support is: An independent earlier Singapore target-trial emulation found duration-dependent protective efficacy of 47%, 44%, and 61% for 3, 6, and at least 12 months of Wolbachia exposure, respectively, supporting the new trial's directional dengue-incidence finding. bd80cdd0

Against that, contradiction: The primary trial reports a time-specific reduction estimate with a confidence interval crossing zero and attenuation during the inter-epidemic period. 014123d0

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. b3d45012

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 1dd02ac5

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:8b01e7c2-1ca6-82f7-92cc-e322775e4109

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
19534	APPENDED
19535	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
19540	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
19570	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
19578	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
25871	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "contested": true,
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