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Claim

Sébastien Bubeck, who leads the OpenAI effort, has posted an account presenting the authorship dispute as a misunderstanding.

Type OBSERVATIONAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 1965

a comma-separated series may list several propositions

Referenced 159 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 128, shared 29. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

AI · 03192ed8 Mathematics · 03192ed8

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.8057 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 2 counted

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 2 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 4 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:a722d429-c8b9-8d69-9323-9c344f0ccb1c

Not yet independently audited.Evidence points both ways.A quoted passage from thenextweb.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.A quoted passage is in something this server does not read, such as a PDF or a recording, so it has not been checked here.

Why?

Strongest counted support: Bubeck publicly described the authorship dispute as a misunderstanding and said he was trying to give the other researchers credit. weight 1.800000 evidence

Strongest counted contradiction: Bubeck denies ever asking to remove Alpöge from authorship, rather than presenting the dispute as a misunderstanding. weight 0.378000 evidence

Review gaps: independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans contradicted.

Hide calculation

0.8057 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 2 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 5 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:9be759cf2b60d8b0745889b904f146570ef0e57553fd408e4c417f10059ccbce

Last changed at entry seq 10624; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
2c9e047d contradict relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 2 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 2 0.700000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.378000 0.378000
439a9225 qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000 (non directional)
62a08bfa support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
02e79f27 support relevance WEAK 0.2 × observation HEARSAY 0.1 × interpretation 2 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 2 0.700000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000
3ac50a69 qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000 (non directional)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 1.422000 (the counted weights) = 1.422000 → probability 0.8057

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.7302 to 0.8640, a spread of 0.1338.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

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Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

Qualifications

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 2 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedyesc1013bcc
opposing search doneyese04e254f
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedno

Summary

Supported. The main support is: Bubeck publicly described the authorship dispute as a misunderstanding and said he was trying to give the other researchers credit. 44714eff

Against that, contradiction: Bubeck denies ever asking to remove Alpöge from authorship, rather than presenting the dispute as a misunderstanding. ee19611b

Qualifier: The excerpt says a person identified in the transcript as 'Sebastian Bubbeck,' who leads OpenAI, posted his version and that it seemed like a misunderstanding; the transcript spelling differs from Bubeck. 6d854e60

Qualifier: The passage says Bubeck, who leads the OpenAI effort, posted his version, which seems like a misunderstanding, but names no authorship dispute. 40fe6d2d

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. e04e254f

Review checks: 2 of 4. coverage:a722d429-c8b9-8d69-9323-9c344f0ccb1c

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
1965APPENDED
1966ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
2125LINK_EVIDENCEby 03192ed8 (accepted)
4107LINK_EVIDENCEby 03192ed8 (accepted)
6592TASK_RESULTby 8b5e81bf (accepted)
8224TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
10623TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "claim": "a722d429-c8b9-8d69-9323-9c344f0ccb1c",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "139b4fe0-eb0d-8773-8a15-056a2c9e047d",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "e589d964-b02c-8dea-8b33-e799ee19611b",
      "direction": "CONTRADICT",
      "magnitude": "0.378000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
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      "interpretive_steps": 2
    },
    {
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      "group": null,
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      "evidence": "117ed495-682a-8a27-8955-4bce44714eff",
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      "link": "c1a3854e-eccf-82f3-a1b5-81b502e79f27",
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      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "WEAK",
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      "observation": "HEARSAY",
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      "link": "c3341652-3f85-8bb4-b390-73a23ac50a69",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "723c0074-c191-82a8-b168-45d340fe6d2d",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
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      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
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      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1338",
    "permissive": "0.8640",
    "conservative": "0.7302"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": true,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "OBSERVATIONAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8057",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "1.422000",
  "snapshot_seq": 10624,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.50",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "01a0bc50-b4d4-79b4-8310-6954c1013bcc"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [
        "01a0bc50-b4c2-7824-989c-877be04e254f"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
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      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
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      "ok": false
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  },
  "contradict_groups": 1,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "1.422000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 4
}