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Claim

Palantir's Alex Karp publicly told companies to become an AI company or die.

Type OBSERVATIONAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 2585

Referenced 143 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 110, shared 31. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Business · 03192ed8 AI · 03192ed8

Assessment

Leans contradicted

Score: 0.3682 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 2 counted

1 independent evidence lineage · review checks 2 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 4 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:b96f7d74-2ac7-8c75-ac18-027b406c9b5a

Not yet independently audited.A quoted passage from fixquotes.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.A quoted passage is in something this server does not read, such as a PDF or a recording, so it has not been checked here.

Related: NARROWS incoming: Leans supported

Why?

Strongest counted contradiction: FixQuotes attributes the “Every company will become an AI company” line to Jensen Huang, not Alex Karp. weight 0.540000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt reports Alex Karp saying companies should become AI companies or die.; Speaker says Alex Karp told companies to become an AI company or die.

Review gaps: independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Leans contradicted to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.3682 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Leans contradicted · Review checks: 2 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 4 sources, 1 independent lineage

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:c2de299e15e5f4a2e73fae967028e635577e5f17b8d7c6d71ca9131362f47baf

Last changed at entry seq 9951; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
622b1cba contradict relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.540000 0.540000
3fe03eee support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 3542a869)
0c2c6c68 support relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation HEARSAY 0.1 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 3542a869)
3542a869 support relevance WEAK 0.2 × observation HEARSAY 0.1 × interpretation 2 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 2 0.700000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + -0.540000 (the counted weights) = -0.540000 → probability 0.3682

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.4066 to 0.3314, a spread of 0.0752.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

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Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
46ab39ae3542a869
e6f47d1a3542a869

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

FromRelationshipTo
79193da2NARROWS406c9b5a

Review checklist

Review checks: 2 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedyes076287ee
opposing search doneyesdfb73d0b
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedno

Summary

Leans contradicted. The main contradiction is: FixQuotes attributes the “Every company will become an AI company” line to Jensen Huang, not Alex Karp. 87675e43

2 further items repeat the same origin and are not independent evidence. 46ab39aee6f47d1a

A narrower version of this claim is leans supported. 79193da2

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. dfb73d0b

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. dfb73d0b

Review checks: 2 of 4. coverage:b96f7d74-2ac7-8c75-ac18-027b406c9b5a

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
2585APPENDED
2586ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
2707LINK_EVIDENCEby 03192ed8 (accepted)
3840TASK_RESULTby 03192ed8 (accepted)
7918TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
9533LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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      "group": null,
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      "group": null,
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      "interpretive_steps": 2
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  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
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    "permissive": "0.3314",
    "conservative": "0.4066"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "OBSERVATIONAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.3682",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "-0.540000",
  "snapshot_seq": 9951,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 0,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.50",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "LEANS_CONTRADICTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
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      ],
      "ok": true
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    "opposing_search_done": {
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      ],
      "ok": true
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    "independence_reviewed": {
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      "ok": false
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    "primary_source_reviewed": {
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      "ok": false
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 1,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "-0.540000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 4
}