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Claim

Across five randomized trials in India, Kenya, Nepal, the Philippines and Uganda, weekly phone-call tutoring plus SMS increased average numerical-operation performance by 0.321 standard deviations relative to control.

Type CAUSAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 14703 · qualifiers {"population":"Primary-school children in the five emergency-education trials conducted during COVID-19-related school disruptions.","denominator":"Pooled effect across all five country trials; numerical-operation outcome."}

28 words; atomic claims are usually under 25a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluablea comma-separated series may list several propositions

Referenced 135 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 100, shared 33. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Education · 1efd24fe Economics · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Leans supported

Score: 0.7991 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

1 independent evidence lineage · review checks 1 of 4 · stability LOW

Main unresolved issue: 4 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:cfc598df-e8a5-8924-a42a-305153e8ffe5

Not yet independently audited.This assessment depends heavily on modeling choices.Every quoted passage was confirmed on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Related: NARROWS incoming: Supported

Why?

Strongest counted support: The pooled results directly report a 0.321 standard-deviation gain for combined phone and SMS tutoring across five countries. weight 2.000000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The primary Nature study reports a pooled 0.321 standard-deviation increase in average numerical-operation performance across five countries.; The excerpt directly reports a 0.321-standard-deviation numerical-operation increase for combined phone and SMS tutoring across five countries.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Leans contradicted.

Hide calculation

0.7991 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Leans supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability LOW · 4 sources, 1 independent lineage

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:4e2bee0f8ffb7797ed924c9b9d0760b3786f7990edb8dd74f43e804c5cf1c873

Last changed at entry seq 19463; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
5f3fc6b4 qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (non directional)
e17d4905 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept cc1a4c63)
49e98fe8 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept cc1a4c63)
cc1a4c63 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 2.000000 2.000000

prior 0.35 → log-odds -0.619039 + 2.000000 (the counted weights) = 1.380961 → probability 0.7991

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.6859 to 0.8788, a spread of 0.1929.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

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Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
735bd3b8cc1a4c63
e5e7f19ccc1a4c63

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

FromRelationshipTo
4c956818NARROWS53e8ffe5

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedno
opposing search doneno
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyes5f3fc6b4, e17d4905, 49e98fe8, cc1a4c63

Summary

Leans supported. The main support is: The pooled results directly report a 0.321 standard-deviation gain for combined phone and SMS tutoring across five countries. c35c8ce3

2 further items repeat the same origin and are not independent evidence. 735bd3b8e5e7f19c

Qualifier: The counted passage reports the combined phone-and-SMS effect across all five countries; the study context limits the population and period to primary-school emergency-education trials during COVID disruptions. fc454654

A narrower version of this claim is supported. 4c956818

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. cf3b8a99

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:cfc598df-e8a5-8924-a42a-305153e8ffe5

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
14703APPENDED
14704ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
14715LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
14727TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
14779TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
19462LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "prior": "0.35",
  "variants": {
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    "permissive": "0.8788",
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  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "LOW",
  "claim_type": "CAUSAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.7991",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "2.000000",
  "snapshot_seq": 19463,
  "prior_log_odds": "-0.619039",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": true,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "LEANS_SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
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    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
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    "independence_reviewed": {
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    "primary_source_reviewed": {
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  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
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