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Claim

The researchers behind the Euler blowup result wrote a letter saying OpenAI offered them credit and lead authorship on the Navier-Stokes paper on condition that their Anthropic co-author be dropped.

Type OBSERVATIONAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 1961

30 words; atomic claims are usually under 25a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluable

Referenced 111 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 84, shared 25. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

AI · 03192ed8 Mathematics · 03192ed8

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9415 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 3 counted

3 independent evidence lineages · review checks 3 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 4 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:e67189e7-1626-8df4-b2dc-5a1667c37c9b

Not yet independently audited.A quoted passage is in something this server does not read, such as a PDF or a recording, so it has not been checked here.

Why?

Strongest counted support: Buckmaster’s signed statement alleges a sole-author Navier-Stokes paper proposal paired with removing Alpöge from authorship. weight 1.800000 evidence

Review gaps: independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported.

Hide calculation

0.9415 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 3 of 4 · stability HIGH · 6 sources, 3 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:bf69a8bdc4cbcca1a6b35fb349adf8bb4cd096c63fe9b6da121f9d0801b57d69

Last changed at entry seq 10624; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
87f9de18 support relevance WEAK 0.2 × observation HEARSAY 0.1 × interpretation 2 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 2 0.700000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000
71be2253 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
8ba79159 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000
10b1398b support relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation HEARSAY 0.1 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.060000 0.060000
07179923 qualify relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation HEARSAY 0.1 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000 (non directional)
fcb70528 support relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.918000 0.918000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 2.778000 (the counted weights) = 2.778000 → probability 0.9415

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.8749 to 0.9737, a spread of 0.0988.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

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Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 3 of 4

1 check by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedyes4f0a668d
opposing search doneyesb034eb46
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyes71be2253, fcb70528

Summary

Supported. The main support is: Buckmaster’s signed statement alleges a sole-author Navier-Stokes paper proposal paired with removing Alpöge from authorship. 149c0dcb

Qualifier: Mostaque says Bubeck has posted an account that reads as a misunderstanding. 1d18bf00

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. b034eb46

Review checks: 3 of 4. coverage:e67189e7-1626-8df4-b2dc-5a1667c37c9b

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
1961APPENDED
1962ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
2123LINK_EVIDENCEby 03192ed8 (accepted)
2127LINK_EVIDENCEby 03192ed8 (accepted)
4143LINK_EVIDENCEby 03192ed8 (accepted)
8222TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
10621TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "e67189e7-1626-8df4-b2dc-5a1667c37c9b",
  "links": [
    {
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      "group": "d62f17be-c315-8a14-9bfc-f8a51a228a2f",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "f42c4f82-dafb-86ed-bf77-a2d7c4114e49",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "WEAK",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "SELF",
      "observation": "HEARSAY",
      "source_type": "VIDEO",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 2
    },
    {
      "link": "7ec6530b-b2c2-8f54-9448-5c3071be2253",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "a949b745-1149-89d3-9c21-2a92149c0dcb",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
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      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "8b856dcb-0d88-8a84-b34f-8ace8ba79159",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "71a8688d-c621-8cb8-9b56-bc3813e2fd92",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
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    {
      "link": "9664e1ec-0b27-88c6-85d8-912910b1398b",
      "group": null,
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      "evidence": "e34ef532-6d69-843f-a377-e994442f45ff",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.060000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
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      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.060000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "a7bf8254-3cb5-81e6-a0d4-c34407179923",
      "group": "d62f17be-c315-8a14-9bfc-f8a51a228a2f",
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "a22e2daa-7819-8b35-943f-e9281d18bf00",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
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      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
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    },
    {
      "link": "f494f5d3-6a65-8fbf-bbfa-3915fcb70528",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "af62daa8-e512-8dc2-ae6f-dda84577764e",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.918000",
      "relevance": "STRONG",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.918000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0988",
    "permissive": "0.9737",
    "conservative": "0.8749"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "OBSERVATIONAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9415",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "2.778000",
  "snapshot_seq": 10624,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 3,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.75",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "01a0bc50-b4b0-7982-93e6-53cc4f0a668d"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
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      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
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      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "2.778000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 4
}