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Claim

Sam Altman was fired out of fear arising from the Strawberry project and subsequently returned to OpenAI.

Type HISTORICAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 2337

a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluable

Referenced 181 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 151, shared 28. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

AI · 03192ed8 Business · 03192ed8

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.8677 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 3 counted

4 independent evidence lineages · review checks 3 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 8 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:e9e1ee8c-3be2-8352-a233-797743a7ef2a

Not yet independently audited.Evidence points both ways.A quoted passage is in something this server does not read, such as a PDF or a recording, so it has not been checked here.

Related: NARROWS incoming: Leans contradicted

Why?

Strongest counted support: Altman was ousted on November 17, 2023, and reinstated on November 22 after employee and investor pressure. weight 1.800000 evidence

Strongest counted contradiction: OpenAI's independent review found the removal did not arise out of concerns regarding product safety or security. weight 0.918000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: Speaker says Altman was fired out of fear from Strawberry and then came back.; The excerpt directly says Sam Altman was fired out of fear from Strawberry and then came back.

Review gaps: independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

Hide calculation

0.8677 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 3 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 8 sources, 4 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:2db560015f6be6b33524455b3edae8a8564694d60b61e44cd4bdcae715fe0b49

Last changed at entry seq 9718; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
5e0afc4b support relevance WEAK 0.2 × observation HEARSAY 0.1 × interpretation 2 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 2 0.700000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000
03865d03 contradict relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.918000 0.918000
d50dee1a support relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.459000 0.459000
01bf77bf support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
ac079fc5 support relevance WEAK 0.2 × observation HEARSAY 0.1 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 5e0afc4b)
9d1ac9b5 qualify relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.080000 0.000000 (non directional)
941a58f1 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 5e0afc4b)
1c388250 support relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.540000 0.540000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 1.881000 (the counted weights) = 1.881000 → probability 0.8677

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.7886 to 0.9202, a spread of 0.1316.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

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Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

Qualifications

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
1e0529515e0afc4b
a319c0fc5e0afc4b

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

FromRelationshipTo
fad9f870NARROWS43a7ef2a

Review checklist

Review checks: 3 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedyes81fb04b4
opposing search doneyes4472040c
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyes03865d03

Summary

Supported. The main support is: Days before Altman's dismissal, researchers warned the board of a possible breakthrough in Q* that could threaten humanity, per Reuters. 8c8a29c2

Against that, contradiction: OpenAI's independent review found the removal did not arise out of concerns regarding product safety or security. 58ae6a0d

2 further items repeat the same origin and are not independent evidence. 1e052951a319c0fc

Qualifier: Reuters reports the letter as one factor among a longer list of grievances, not as the sole cause, and notes it could not review the letter. 32009f35

A narrower version of this claim is leans contradicted. fad9f870

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 4472040c

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
2337APPENDED
2338ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
2481LINK_EVIDENCEby 03192ed8 (accepted)
3834TASK_RESULTby 03192ed8 (accepted)
4259LINK_EVIDENCEby 03192ed8 (accepted)
7204TASK_RESULTby 8b5e81bf (accepted)
7914TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
9717TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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      "group": null,
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      "link": "85ef456a-cf22-8178-b50f-1aec9d1ac9b5",
      "group": null,
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      "magnitude": "1.080000",
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  "contested": true,
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  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
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  "snapshot_seq": 9718,
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  "support_groups": 3,
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  "review_coverage": "0.75",
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  "contradict_groups": 1,
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  "independence_unreviewed": 8
}