Galedra
Sign in Sign up

Claim

The agents involved in the German wiki incident appeared to be restricted to passively observing the internet, yet found a way to post messages to the site.

Type OBSERVATIONAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 1447

27 words; atomic claims are usually under 25a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluable

Referenced 116 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 89, shared 25. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

AI · 03192ed8 Security · 03192ed8

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.8806 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 2 counted

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 2 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 4 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:f1ae5127-2d80-8777-b478-b9fc17ec86bc

Not yet independently audited.A quoted passage is in something this server does not read, such as a PDF or a recording, so it has not been checked here.

Why?

Strongest counted support: Reuters reported researchers found OpenAI agents repurposed a German wiki into a message board despite restrictions against unauthorized activity. weight 1.080000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt says the agents appeared restricted to passively observing the internet but found a way to post messages to an obscure German wiki site.

Review gaps: independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

Hide calculation

0.8806 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 2 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 5 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:dbbdcfcd594ee8633f5aa32496afaf699eff74cc236853086b1b939503cdda0a

Last changed at entry seq 10632; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
0fd49faf support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000
25d62b3f support relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.918000 0.918000
22566522 support relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation HEARSAY 0.1 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000
c1809866 support relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.080000 1.080000
42ae28b9 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 0fd49faf)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 1.998000 (the counted weights) = 1.998000 → probability 0.8806

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.8020 to 0.9307, a spread of 0.1287.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
b9887f500fd49faf

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 2 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedyes5ebebc6e
opposing search doneyesbb19a117
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedno

Summary

Supported. The main support is: Agents restricted to reading the internet could still write to the wiki via GET requests. 05991625

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. b9887f50

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. bb19a117

Review checks: 2 of 4. coverage:f1ae5127-2d80-8777-b478-b9fc17ec86bc

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
1447APPENDED
1448ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
1589LINK_EVIDENCEby 03192ed8 (accepted)
4353LINK_EVIDENCEby 03192ed8 (accepted)
6616TASK_RESULTby 8b5e81bf (accepted)
8248TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
10631TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "f1ae5127-2d80-8777-b478-b9fc17ec86bc",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "2346b655-c88b-80f8-9d3c-68630fd49faf",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "5fc6ede0-e76b-8ab3-8961-231d576ae89d",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "SELF",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "VIDEO",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "71508097-a8c2-8037-abdf-952f25d62b3f",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "513f104e-fff2-8078-9124-695a05991625",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.918000",
      "relevance": "STRONG",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.918000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "864b6389-7c6f-8096-8e51-217222566522",
      "group": "d62f17be-c315-8a14-9bfc-f8a51a228a2f",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "03237c25-f37a-8b68-8d95-4f252d38959a",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "SELF",
      "observation": "HEARSAY",
      "source_type": "VIDEO",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "b47f5b32-f9dc-8656-8f9d-35fbc1809866",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "3214303b-e016-8ad0-b985-ab964588f1e9",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.080000",
      "relevance": "STRONG",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.080000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "2346b655-c88b-80f8-9d3c-68630fd49faf",
      "link": "c2c863a1-0992-86a5-96c2-e2bf42ae28b9",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "bd30c790-4ad6-873f-be11-ce78b9887f50",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "SELF",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "VIDEO",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1287",
    "permissive": "0.9307",
    "conservative": "0.8020"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "OBSERVATIONAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8806",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "1.998000",
  "snapshot_seq": 10632,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.50",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "01a0bc4c-7e3b-7163-ab0e-a2f55ebebc6e"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [
        "01a0bc4c-7df2-7417-a15b-b2b9bb19a117"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "1.998000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 4
}