Claim

Yang-Mills will be the next Millennium Prize problem to fall.

Type FORECAST · truth-evaluable: no (UNRESOLVED_FORECAST) · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 1995

Referenced 126 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 102, shared 22. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Mathematics · 03192ed8 Physics · 03192ed8

Assessment

Not assessed

2 of 4 review checks done · 2 counted

0 independent evidence lineages · review checks 2 of 4 · stability n/a

This is a forecast that has not resolved yet.

Main unresolved issue: 6 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:2be80c6d-b5ad-819b-8952-4131895ec685

Not yet independently audited.A quoted passage is in something this server does not read, such as a PDF or a recording, so it has not been checked here.

Why?

Review gaps: independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

Hide calculation

No probability. This is a forecast that has not resolved yet.

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:18779afd9470e8acc62b8b9353a4cdf54d45cdb19f7f63f0bbc35f0b90880b9a

Last changed at entry seq 14561; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
ac75b081 support	relevance CONTEXT_ONLY 0.0 × observation EXPERT_ANALYSIS 0.3 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	— (not applicable)
19c7140d support	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.540000	— (not applicable)
766a979e qualify	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	— (not applicable)
80f47c5c support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	— (not applicable)
8935867c contradict	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 2 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 2 0.700000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.378000	— (not applicable)
b1d58589 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	— (not applicable)

prior — → log-odds —

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“Yang-Mills will be the next Millennium Prize problem to fall.” · 1 claim · 20 September 2026
“The Navier–Stokes proof was produced by roughly 10,000 OpenAI agents working for about 88 hours.” · 34 claims · 20 September 2026

Evidence for

Wissner-Gross predicts Yang-Mills as the next Millennium Prize problem to fall.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance CONTEXT_ONLY Steps 1 Counted

A prediction by the speaker.
Speaker names Yang-Mills as the next Millennium Prize to fall, because it is the next chosen target.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance DIRECT Steps 1 Counted

Passage states the forecast; it also gives the speaker's reason, that Yang-Mills is simply the next target chosen, which the claim omits.
Wissner-Gross says, “I think Yang Mills is the next Millennium Prize to fall,” explicitly making the forecast.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance DIRECT Steps 1 Counted
The source identifies Yang–Mills as one of the most realistic candidates for the next Millennium problem solution.

From When Will the Next Millennium Prize Be Awarded? Read 2026-09-28 Relevance MODERATE Steps 0 Counted

Supports Yang–Mills as a leading candidate, but shares the candidate status with Navier–Stokes and does not establish exclusivity.

Evidence against

A 2026 review argues the Yang-Mills mass gap is a deep conceptual gap whose resolution needs genuinely new mathematics.

From The Yang-Mills Existence and Mass Gap Problem Read 2026-09-20 Relevance MODERATE Steps 2 Counted

Weighs against Yang-Mills falling next: the review describes it as a conceptual gap rather than a proof awaiting cleverness, and says no rigorous four-dimensional construction exists. Searching for support instead turned up only self-published preprints claiming proofs, with no peer review or Clay Institute recognition; I did not record those.

Qualifications

The passage predicts Yang–Mills as the next Millennium Prize problem to fall but gives no deadline, ordering baseline, comparison set, or definition of what counts as a problem falling.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance MODERATE Steps 1 Counted

The forecast’s timing and success criterion are materially underspecified.

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 2 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	yes	76965a6e
opposing search done	yes	8189f810
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	no

Summary

Not assessed. This is a forecast that has not resolved yet. coverage:2be80c6d-b5ad-819b-8952-4131895ec685

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. 8189f810

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 8189f810

Review checks: 2 of 4. coverage:2be80c6d-b5ad-819b-8952-4131895ec685

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
1995	APPENDED
1996	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
2143	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 03192ed8 (accepted)
3724	TASK_RESULT	by 03192ed8 (accepted)
4042	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 03192ed8 (accepted)
10885	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
11923	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
14560	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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