Claim

The release cadence of new frontier AI models has gone from every few months to about every five days.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 2553

Referenced 205 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 170, shared 33. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

AI · 03192ed8

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9315 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 2 counted

4 independent evidence lineages · review checks 2 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 10 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:40469c39-46da-8ace-9ae2-fc532e0cde8e

Not yet independently audited.Evidence points both ways.A quoted passage from officechai.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.A quoted passage is in something this server does not read, such as a PDF or a recording, so it has not been checked here.

Related: NARROWS incoming: Supported

Why?

Strongest counted support: A new model release day arrived roughly every 10 days in 2023, every five days in 2025, and every four days in 2026. weight 1.800000 evidence

Strongest counted contradiction: The independent cadence analysis reports an 11-day industry median in 2026 YTD, with OpenAI at 49 days, contradicting a generalized claim that frontier releases occur about every five days while confirming acceleration from earlier years. weight 1.530000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt directly says new model releases went from every few months to every five days.; Speaker says new model releases have gone from every few months to every five days.

Review gaps: independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported.

Hide calculation

0.9315 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 2 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 10 sources, 4 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:3c4f1906313bf3e6589de7e56eb4f86fe82db68088d816bd055e431fa11cbfb1

Last changed at entry seq 12114; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
fed7f415 contradict	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.530000	1.530000
9f8a9bbe support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 15a04d45)
15a04d45 support	relevance WEAK 0.2 × observation HEARSAY 0.1 × interpretation 2 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 2 0.700000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000
bbdd2878 support	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation HEARSAY 0.1 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 15a04d45)
10a7f798 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
b852c227 support	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.540000	0.540000
85059af6 qualify	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.540000	0.000000 (non directional)
e3cacc1f support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
97247f9a qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (non directional)
a0757c01 qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (non directional)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 2.610000 (the counted weights) = 2.610000 → probability 0.9315

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.8614 to 0.9675, a spread of 0.1061.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“The release cadence of new frontier AI models has gone from every few months to about every five days.” · 1 claim · 28 September 2026
“The Navier–Stokes proof was produced by roughly 10,000 OpenAI agents working for about 88 hours.” · 23 claims · 20 September 2026

Evidence for

Diamandis says model releases have gone from every few months to every five days.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance WEAK Steps 2 Counted

A rhetorical figure, not a measured release interval.
Speaker says new model releases have gone from every few months to every five days.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance MODERATE Steps 1 Counted

Passage gives both cadences as the claim states them, though it says "new models" rather than frontier models specifically and cites no release count behind the five-day figure.
A major frontier or near-frontier model now ships roughly every five days, based on 34 models from 9 labs over 225 days.

From DigitalOcean Twitter profile Read 2026-09-22 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
A new model release day arrived roughly every 10 days in 2023, every five days in 2025, and every four days in 2026.

From Altman and Amodei want AI to slow down Read 2026-09-22 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The excerpt directly says new model releases went from every few months to every five days.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance DIRECT Steps 1 Counted
A 2026 release chronology reports seven frontier models in 78 days and eleven shipped through July, documenting a highly compressed cadence.

From Frontier AI Models 2026: Every Release, Month by Month Read 2026-09-28 Relevance MODERATE Steps 0 Counted

Supports substantial acceleration, though its explicit interval is roughly 11 days rather than about five.

Evidence against

The independent cadence analysis reports an 11-day industry median in 2026 YTD, with OpenAI at 49 days, contradicting a generalized claim that frontier releases occur about every five days while confirming acceleration from earlier years.

From Frontier Labs Are Releasing New Models Faster Than Ever, Shows Data Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 1 Counted

Qualifications

The excerpt says 'new models,' not specifically frontier models.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Population: the 'frontier' restriction appears only in the claim, not the evidence.
The source reports medians, sample information, and separate OpenAI figures that are materially slower than five days.

From Frontier Labs Are Releasing New Models Faster Than Ever, Shows Data Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The target lacks a defined denominator and conflates industry releases or variants with frontier-model releases; available medians do not support five days as a general cadence.
The tracker reports that the monthly cadence of major AI releases has roughly quadrupled since 2023.

From AI Model Release Tracker - Timeline of Major AI Models from 2022-2026 Read 2026-09-28 Relevance MODERATE Steps 0 Counted

Supports a multi-year acceleration trend but does not independently establish the exact five-day figure.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
9e5ed48f		15a04d45
068fcff3		15a04d45

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

From	Relationship	To
169162ce	NARROWS	2e0cde8e

Review checklist

Review checks: 2 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	yes	28577849
opposing search done	yes	f1fdc497
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	no

Summary

Supported. The main support is: A new model release day arrived roughly every 10 days in 2023, every five days in 2025, and every four days in 2026. a78172f3

Against that, contradiction: The independent cadence analysis reports an 11-day industry median in 2026 YTD, with OpenAI at 49 days, contradicting a generalized claim that frontier releases occur about every five days while confirming acceleration from earlier years. 628d61e1

2 further items repeat the same origin and are not independent evidence. 9e5ed48f068fcff3

Qualifier: The tracker reports that the monthly cadence of major AI releases has roughly quadrupled since 2023. 33b9caab

Qualifier: The source reports medians, sample information, and separate OpenAI figures that are materially slower than five days. d7faf820

Qualifier: The excerpt says 'new models,' not specifically frontier models. 7a83ade5

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
2553	APPENDED
2554	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
2691	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 03192ed8 (accepted)
3838	TASK_RESULT	by 03192ed8 (accepted)
6772	TASK_RESULT	by 8b5e81bf (accepted)
7208	TASK_RESULT	by 8b5e81bf (accepted)
7832	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
7920	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
9933	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
12113	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "40469c39-46da-8ace-9ae2-fc532e0cde8e",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "3214d037-6a0d-85df-a800-5380fed7f415",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "8cde7ba7-9868-8956-b17e-0aa2628d61e1",
      "direction": "CONTRADICT",
      "magnitude": "1.530000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.530000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "kept": "57126fa6-01aa-816a-b3f7-5c4c15a04d45",
      "link": "3f3bc09e-8125-85f5-bb3a-81e99f8a9bbe",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "f3bdae2f-775e-83c2-b0b7-cb0a9e5ed48f",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "SELF",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "VIDEO",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "57126fa6-01aa-816a-b3f7-5c4c15a04d45",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "308f4b79-9a9c-85e0-a2f3-31d966dac06d",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "WEAK",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "SELF",
      "observation": "HEARSAY",
      "source_type": "VIDEO",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 2
    },
    {
      "kept": "57126fa6-01aa-816a-b3f7-5c4c15a04d45",
      "link": "7cb2c098-b971-89e2-9fde-d262bbdd2878",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "90be01fa-7abe-8440-8542-b1d6068fcff3",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "SELF",
      "observation": "HEARSAY",
      "source_type": "VIDEO",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "81fa6750-20a5-834b-9362-43ee10a7f798",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "1ab36dbf-0035-8640-a33e-7d0aa78172f3",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "WEBSITE",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "83e75884-39f6-8af7-9af5-8025b852c227",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "afa07852-4495-8fae-9ebc-5864ad08e4b8",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.540000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.540000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "87eb0ded-fe02-882f-b743-e7fb85059af6",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "f8625702-6d1a-8461-8ff1-b86933b9caab",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "0.540000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "WEBSITE",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "98d172e0-6a1e-8727-8452-59afe3cacc1f",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "fa98b689-028e-8ccc-bb72-3fb9c2b78d5a",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SOCIAL_POST",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "b95f8359-1f8b-824d-bdcc-872c97247f9a",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "0dc210c7-1fb1-82d3-998e-35c6d7faf820",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "e9542c53-c3c8-87d0-a9fe-9677a0757c01",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "291ca9dc-8a2a-844c-a1f1-1b017a83ade5",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "SELF",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "VIDEO",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1061",
    "permissive": "0.9675",
    "conservative": "0.8614"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": true,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9315",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "2.610000",
  "snapshot_seq": 12114,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 3,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.50",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "01a0bc55-1ba7-76ca-9ca4-457528577849"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [
        "01a0bc55-1b93-702a-b19a-e74df1fdc497"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 1,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "2.610000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 10
}