Galedra
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Claim

AI will never become too cheap to meter, because use cases expand as fast as unit costs fall.

Type FORECAST · truth-evaluable: no (UNRESOLVED_FORECAST) · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 2853

an inference word joins a premise to a conclusion; consider separate claims and an edge

Referenced 97 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 94, shared 2. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

AI · 03192ed8 Prices and inflation · 03192ed8

Assessment

Not assessed

0 of 4 review checks done · 0 counted

0 independent evidence lineages · review checks 0 of 4 · stability n/a

This is a forecast that has not resolved yet.

Main unresolved issue: 3 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:6948b62a-a978-8e36-95e3-35b44f6e8447

Not yet independently audited.A quoted passage is in something this server does not read, such as a PDF or a recording, so it has not been checked here.

Why?

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

Hide calculation

No probability. This is a forecast that has not resolved yet.

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:78b5fda24c421d4f4bc987276d35652bd7f8d248433cf35449bc2739ada1574c

Last changed at entry seq 10904; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
5ae7c108 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 — (not applicable)
5ec5d377 support relevance CONTEXT_ONLY 0.0 × observation EXPERT_ANALYSIS 0.3 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 — (not applicable)
7580e3d9 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 — (not applicable)

prior — → log-odds —

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 0 of 4

1 check by this claim's own author. No independent review yet. 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedno
opposing search doneno
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedno

Summary

Not assessed. This is a forecast that has not resolved yet. coverage:6948b62a-a978-8e36-95e3-35b44f6e8447

Review checks: 0 of 4. coverage:6948b62a-a978-8e36-95e3-35b44f6e8447

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
2853APPENDED
2854ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
2973LINK_EVIDENCEby 03192ed8 (accepted)
3744TASK_RESULTby 03192ed8 (accepted)
10903TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "claim": "6948b62a-a978-8e36-95e3-35b44f6e8447",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "54658cd3-de84-843a-8665-cbb75ae7c108",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "not_applicable",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "0057129a-f5e7-8515-9475-560cebebfe99",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "SELF",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "VIDEO",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": null,
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "8977c720-fa5b-8cde-a0fb-d0025ec5d377",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "not_applicable",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "3a7124fc-bab2-859a-91e6-83644b1f6ce7",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "CONTEXT_ONLY",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "SELF",
      "observation": "EXPERT_ANALYSIS",
      "source_type": "VIDEO",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": null,
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "e088295e-82bb-899a-989a-4d487580e3d9",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "not_applicable",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "a344b4db-e106-8387-937f-9467a8a33d89",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
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      "source_type": "VIDEO",
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      "interpretive_steps": 1
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": null,
  "variants": null,
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": null,
  "claim_type": "FORECAST",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": null,
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": null,
  "snapshot_seq": 10904,
  "prior_log_odds": null,
  "support_groups": 0,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.00",
  "truth_evaluable": false,
  "assessment_state": "NOT_APPLICABLE",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": null,
  "not_applicable_reason": "UNRESOLVED_FORECAST",
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}