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Claim

Humans evolved over four billion years to do two things: survive and procreate.

Type INTERPRETIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 2301

Referenced 194 times: checked 4, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 120, shared 70. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Biology · 03192ed8

Assessment

Contradicted

Score: 0.0640 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 3 counted

4 independent evidence lineages · review checks 3 of 4 · stability LOW

Main unresolved issue: 10 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:78bb0def-ce91-8156-bf33-b9be55fb51be

Not yet independently audited.Evidence points both ways.This assessment depends heavily on modeling choices.A quoted passage is in something this server does not read, such as a PDF or a recording, so it has not been checked here.

Why?

Strongest counted support: Darwin describes survival and procreation as the differential outcomes that natural selection favors. weight 0.459000 evidence

Strongest counted contradiction: Smithsonian’s human-origins timeline places the human lineage at roughly six million years and Homo sapiens at roughly 300,000 years, contradicting a four-billion-year human evolution timeframe. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt says humans evolved for four billion years to survive and procreate.; A speaker says humans evolved for four billion years to do two things, survive and procreate.

Review gaps: independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Leans contradicted.

Hide calculation

0.0640 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Contradicted · Review checks: 3 of 4 · stability LOW · 10 sources, 4 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:53632d7bd4de3e7595d338275c52b2f7f7b5ebc43d095a284ed54a8c6845d8b9

Last changed at entry seq 13812; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
74ca36de support relevance WEAK 0.2 × observation EXPERT_ANALYSIS 0.3 × interpretation 2 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 2 0.700000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000
a5d3db7d support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 74ca36de)
d01fa7e4 contradict relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
1e20f5ec contradict relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
edb916b3 support relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.459000 0.459000
963aeccf support relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation HEARSAY 0.1 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 74ca36de)
d9ecca59 qualify relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.918000 0.000000 (non directional)
fdcdea50 support relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.459000 0.459000
b42e9022 qualify relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.459000 0.000000 (non directional)
025d116c qualify relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.918000 0.000000 (non directional)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + -2.682000 (the counted weights) = -2.682000 → probability 0.0640

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.1327 to 0.0297, a spread of 0.1030.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

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Registered views

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Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

Qualifications

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
b5cec79b74ca36de
2f219e8474ca36de

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 3 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedyes2061597b
opposing search doneyes337357ca
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyes1e20f5ec, edb916b3, fdcdea50, 025d116c

Summary

Contradicted. The main support is: Darwin describes survival and procreation as the differential outcomes that natural selection favors. 8263eef2

Against that, contradiction: Smithsonian’s human-origins timeline places the human lineage at roughly six million years and Homo sapiens at roughly 300,000 years, contradicting a four-billion-year human evolution timeframe. 2fd1f128

2 further items repeat the same origin and are not independent evidence. b5cec79b2f219e84

Qualifier: Natural selection is differential survival and reproduction from differences in heritable traits. 6d26b079

Qualifier: Evolutionary winners are individuals that survive and reproduce, passing traits to offspring. 88056cfd

Qualifier: OpenStax describes natural selection as improving survival and reproductive success in environments, while emphasizing that evolution is constrained and does not produce perfect organisms. a15d7bdf

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
2301APPENDED
2302ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
2463LINK_EVIDENCEby 03192ed8 (accepted)
3908TASK_RESULTby 03192ed8 (accepted)
7278TASK_RESULTby 8b5e81bf (accepted)
7974TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
9725LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
9912LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
10199TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
13811LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
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    "permissive": "0.0297",
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  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": true,
  "stability": "LOW",
  "claim_type": "INTERPRETIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
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  "snapshot_seq": 13812,
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  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": true,
  "review_coverage": "0.75",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "CONTRADICTED",
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