Claim

MIT and Harvard researchers have published work on what happens when AI agents make transactions nearly free, which they call the Coasean singularity.

Type OBSERVATIONAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 3351

Referenced 146 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 110, shared 34. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Economics · 03192ed8 AI · 03192ed8

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9972 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 3 counted

4 independent evidence lineages · review checks 3 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 11 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:82688c26-ac57-86d3-95d1-ea6eeae716f8

Not yet independently audited.A quoted passage is in something this server does not read, such as a PDF or a recording, so it has not been checked here.

Related: NARROWS incoming: Supported

Why?

Strongest counted support: The paper explicitly describes AI agents as reducing transaction costs in digital markets. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt says MIT and Harvard researchers studied near-free AI-agent transactions and called the concept the Coasean singularity.; A speaker says MIT and Harvard researchers asked what happens when AI agents make transactions nearly free.

Review gaps: independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9972 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 3 of 4 · stability HIGH · 11 sources, 4 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:67b45891af6d57214cd8e070f5c38f457aa3a775dad2809d3645cfffcd95ea5e

Last changed at entry seq 10129; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
16d4f626 qualify	relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.918000	0.000000 (non directional)
090b51ec support	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.459000	0.459000
79b82f92 qualify	relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.918000	0.000000 (non directional)
fc84936e support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
718e24ac qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (non directional)
72800fb7 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
5d67b19a qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (non directional)
0b142eba support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 35b855d1)
fb5cbd97 support	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation HEARSAY 0.1 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 35b855d1)
35b855d1 support	relevance WEAK 0.2 × observation HEARSAY 0.1 × interpretation 2 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 2 0.700000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000
6747b7d1 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 5.859000 (the counted weights) = 5.859000 → probability 0.9972

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9837 to 0.9995, a spread of 0.0158.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“In 1937 the economist Ronald Coase asked why companies exist at all, and he won a Nobel Prize for that work.” · 6 claims · 20 September 2026
“The Navier–Stokes proof was produced by roughly 10,000 OpenAI agents working for about 88 hours.” · 28 claims · 20 September 2026

Evidence for

Diamandis says MIT and Harvard researchers named the Coasean singularity.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance WEAK Steps 2 Counted

No paper, author or date is named, and the host later wonders aloud whether it is even from this year.
A speaker says MIT and Harvard researchers asked what happens when AI agents make transactions nearly free.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance MODERATE Steps 1 Counted

The passage covers the researchers, the question and the coinage (transcribed as 'Cosian'), but says they 'have asked', which does not establish that work was published.
An NBER paper titled The Coasean Singularity examines AI agents sharply reducing transaction costs.

From The Coasean Singularity? Demand, Supply, and Market Design with AI Agents Read 2026-09-20 Relevance MODERATE Steps 1 Counted

The paper exists and matches the description. Two qualifications. Its title poses the Coasean singularity as a question rather than asserting it, so they examine the idea rather than name a phenomenon. And the institutional attribution is incomplete: the listed affiliations are four MIT-affiliated authors, one at Harvard, and one at Boston University, so calling it MIT and Harvard researchers omits BU and overstates Harvard's share.
The excerpt says MIT and Harvard researchers studied near-free AI-agent transactions and called the concept the Coasean singularity.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance DIRECT Steps 1 Counted
The NBER paper lists the named author group behind the Coasean singularity research.

From The Coasean Singularity? Demand, Supply, and Market Design with AI Agents Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The NBER source identifies the paper and its authors.
The paper explicitly describes AI agents as reducing transaction costs in digital markets.

From The Coasean Singularity? Demand, Supply, and Market Design with AI Agents Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The abstract directly states the transaction-cost reduction premise.
The paper analyzes agents that search, negotiate, and transact directly in markets.

From The Coasean Singularity? Demand, Supply, and Market Design with AI Agents Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The abstract directly describes agents performing market transaction functions.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

The excerpt says the researchers asked the question and named it; it says nothing about published work.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

'Have published work' is not established; the excerpt describes a question asked and a name given.
The paper is authored by researchers at MIT and Harvard, dated September 16, 2025, and examines AI agents as market participants transacting in digital marketplaces.

From The Coasean Singularity? Demand, Supply, and Market Design with AI Agents (NBER conference paper) Read 2026-09-22 Relevance STRONG Steps 1 Counted

Authorship spans MIT and Harvard researchers as the claim states, and the work concerns AI agents and transactions.
The authors call the potential transaction-cost shift from AI agents a Coasean Singularity.

From How AI Agents for Commerce Could Shape Future Markets (MIT IDE) Read 2026-09-22 Relevance STRONG Steps 1 Counted

Directly confirms the term Coasean Singularity is the authors' name for near-free AI-agent transactions.
The academic abstract supports lower transaction costs while expressly naming continuing frictions; it does not support the target’s institutional attribution or “nearly free” wording.

From The Coasean Singularity? Demand, Supply, and Market Design with AI Agents Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The paper exists and uses the Coasean Singularity title, but the target overstates the cost reduction and misstates what the cited abstract establishes.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
5826dd2a		35b855d1
738d8de3		35b855d1

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

From	Relationship	To
4b63b6e8	NARROWS	eae716f8

Review checklist

Review checks: 3 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	yes	8ba9bf71
opposing search done	yes	afb9eb35
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	090b51ec, fc84936e, 72800fb7, 6747b7d1

Summary

Supported. The main support is: An NBER paper titled The Coasean Singularity examines AI agents sharply reducing transaction costs. aa5840b4

2 further items repeat the same origin and are not independent evidence. 5826dd2a738d8de3

Qualifier: The paper is authored by researchers at MIT and Harvard, dated September 16, 2025, and examines AI agents as market participants transacting in digital marketplaces. f80b8a2f

Qualifier: The authors call the potential transaction-cost shift from AI agents a Coasean Singularity. b99b3a06

Qualifier: The excerpt says the researchers asked the question and named it; it says nothing about published work. 093eae4f

Qualifier: The academic abstract supports lower transaction costs while expressly naming continuing frictions; it does not support the target’s institutional attribution or “nearly free” wording. d0ee31ed

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
3351	APPENDED
3352	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
3515	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 03192ed8 (accepted)
3856	TASK_RESULT	by 03192ed8 (accepted)
4669	LINK_EVIDENCE	by e82bf250 (accepted)
6788	TASK_RESULT	by 8b5e81bf (accepted)
7224	TASK_RESULT	by 8b5e81bf (accepted)
7834	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
7936	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
10128	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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