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Claim

OpenAI was targeting the Riemann hypothesis and P versus NP before switching its effort to Navier-Stokes.

Type OBSERVATIONAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 1999

a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluable

Referenced 202 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 1, viewed 160, shared 39. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Mathematics · 03192ed8 AI · 03192ed8

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9477 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 3 counted

5 independent evidence lineages · review checks 3 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 8 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:bb0f652a-2ca9-8814-bb5d-195e5370ece0

Not yet independently audited.Evidence points both ways.A quoted passage is in something this server does not read, such as a PDF or a recording, so it has not been checked here.

Related: NARROWS incoming: Leans supported

Why?

Strongest counted support: OpenAI's agents initially evaluated all six open Millennium Prize problems, including Riemann hypothesis and P vs NP, before focusing solely on Navier-Stokes. weight 1.800000 evidence

Strongest counted contradiction: The report quotes OpenAI describing substantial progress on another Millennium problem since completing Navier–Stokes. weight 1.080000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: Speaker says they targeted Riemann and P versus NP before switching to Navier-Stokes.; The excerpt says OpenAI targeted Riemann and P versus NP before switching to Navier-Stokes.

Review gaps: independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported.

Hide calculation

0.9477 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 3 of 4 · stability HIGH · 8 sources, 5 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:6adbeab0a2a280cd55b02b62e114f59c0f7abc34ca90378ea8f7a5d2bc3d093f

Last changed at entry seq 9401; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
207cb66a support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
fbe8376a support relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.918000 0.918000
d9c13a6f support relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation HEARSAY 0.1 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 2d29ff41)
1a9d4ab4 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
ac67c5b7 contradict relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.080000 1.080000
2d29ff41 support relevance WEAK 0.2 × observation HEARSAY 0.1 × interpretation 2 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 2 0.700000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000
3200def5 contradict relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.540000 0.540000
28ab9ecd support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 2d29ff41)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 2.898000 (the counted weights) = 2.898000 → probability 0.9477

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.8838 to 0.9774, a spread of 0.0936.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

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Registered views

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Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
2667725f2d29ff41
260053f62d29ff41

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

FromRelationshipTo
ffb201eeNARROWS5370ece0

Review checklist

Review checks: 3 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedyesb1277801
opposing search doneyes0686e600
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyesfbe8376a

Summary

Supported. The main support is: OpenAI's agents initially evaluated all six open Millennium Prize problems, including Riemann hypothesis and P vs NP, before focusing solely on Navier-Stokes. 70f77202

Against that, contradiction: The report quotes OpenAI describing substantial progress on another Millennium problem since completing Navier–Stokes. f94d7b6a

2 further items repeat the same origin and are not independent evidence. 2667725f260053f6

A narrower version of this claim is leans supported. ffb201ee

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 0686e600

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 0686e600

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
1999APPENDED
2000ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
2145LINK_EVIDENCEby 03192ed8 (accepted)
3820TASK_RESULTby 03192ed8 (accepted)
5526LINK_EVIDENCEby 56fe4c61 (accepted)
7190TASK_RESULTby 8b5e81bf (accepted)
7900TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
9400TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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