Claim

In a study of 959 primary prostate-cancer donors, eight integrated mutational footprints collectively explained the mutational processes in 85% of primary prostate-cancer genomes; four footprints present in 37% of primary tumours were associated with shorter time to metastasis.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 15005 · qualifiers {"population":"Primary prostate-cancer genomes from the Pan Prostate Cancer Group; the reported associations are observational and do not establish that the footprints cause metastasis."}

38 words; atomic claims are usually under 25

Referenced 111 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 69, shared 40. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Medicine · 1efd24fe Biology · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9781 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 1 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 3 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:f0c08f56-7ade-8239-8238-8c06d86217b7

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from nature.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The abstract directly reports the donor count, eight footprints, 85% genome coverage, 37% tumour prevalence, and metastasis association. weight 2.000000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt directly reports the donor count, eight footprints, 85% coverage, 37% prevalence, and metastasis association.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9781 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 3 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:aab9ed45c1b053a7c8aa104b9716bd29c514b6aabe4d19231e5aa34c22f1b0be

Last changed at entry seq 15910; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
3c3a7138 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
27bbfc4d support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 58258487)
58258487 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	2.000000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 3.800000 (the counted weights) = 3.800000 → probability 0.9781

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9346 to 0.9929, a spread of 0.0583.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“In a study of 959 primary prostate-cancer donors, eight integrated mutational footprints collectively explained the mutational processes in 85% of primary...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“A 2026 Nature study integrated mutational signatures across prostate-cancer genomes to characterize mutational processes and explore clinical associations.” · 2 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The abstract directly reports the donor count, eight footprints, 85% genome coverage, 37% tumour prevalence, and metastasis association.

From Integrated signatures define mutational processes in prostate cancer Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The abstract directly states the quantitative cohort and footprint findings.
The excerpt directly reports the donor count, eight footprints, 85% coverage, 37% prevalence, and metastasis association.

From Integrated signatures define mutational processes in prostate cancer Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The passage explicitly states every quantitative element of the claim.
The Nature study of 959 donors reports eight integrated mutational footprints explaining 85% of primary prostate-cancer genomes, with four footprints present in 37% of tumors linked to shorter time to metastasis.

From Integrated signatures define mutational processes in prostate cancer Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Primary article directly matches the cohort size, eight footprints, 85% coverage, 37% prevalence, and metastasis association.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
f19b35c4		58258487

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	3c3a7138, 27bbfc4d, 58258487

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The Nature study of 959 donors reports eight integrated mutational footprints explaining 85% of primary prostate-cancer genomes, with four footprints present in 37% of tumors linked to shorter time to metastasis. 4baebc10

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. f19b35c4

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:f0c08f56-7ade-8239-8238-8c06d86217b7

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
15005	APPENDED
15006	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
15017	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
15021	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
15909	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "claim": "f0c08f56-7ade-8239-8238-8c06d86217b7",
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      "direction": "SUPPORT",
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      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
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      "kept": "85e7f606-cefd-8976-8782-65ac58258487",
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      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
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      "direction": "SUPPORT",
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      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
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      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "85e7f606-cefd-8976-8782-65ac58258487",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "447bf9bb-cbd0-8ba7-929b-fa5061cbeccd",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
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      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "2.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
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  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0583",
    "permissive": "0.9929",
    "conservative": "0.9346"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9781",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "3.800000",
  "snapshot_seq": 15910,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
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      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
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      "ok": false
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    "primary_source_reviewed": {
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      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "3.800000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}