Claim

About 80% of people in China are pro-AI while about 80% of people in the United States are against AI.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 719

Referenced 231 times: checked 4, looked up by assistants 2, viewed 148, shared 77. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Society · b63200ce AI · b63200ce

Assessment

Contradicted

Score: 0.0257 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

4 of 4 review checks done · 4 counted

3 independent evidence lineages · review checks 4 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 7 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:16fb6733-70c1-8c5f-821a-09884d1aae25

Not yet independently audited; some evidence was recorded by an anonymous contributor.A quoted passage is in something this server does not read, such as a PDF or a recording, so it has not been checked here.

Related: NARROWS incoming: Supported

Why?

Strongest counted contradiction: The counted evidence reports excitement, not opposition: 38% of US respondents were excited, which does not mean 62% are against AI. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: Excerpt compares 38% U.S. yes to 84%; it does not state China or that ~80% of Americans are against AI.

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Contradicted.

Hide calculation

0.0257 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Contradicted · Review checks: 4 of 4 · stability HIGH · 9 sources, 3 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:13aba3dba40a776202ad5f4c3d7be5b62263f54a7871a818273a290abb7224b7

Last changed at entry seq 10878; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
8e893e27 qualify	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.540000	0.000000 (non directional)
42f27fd8 support	relevance WEAK 0.2 × observation HEARSAY 0.1 × interpretation 2 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 2 0.700000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000
8075bfad qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.530000	0.000000 (non directional)
1570a2c0 qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.530000	0.000000 (non directional)
239faf8e contradict	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
570d44d6 qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (non directional)
e9f803bd contradict	relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.918000	0.918000
3636aeba contradict	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 239faf8e)
8f821123 contradict	relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.918000	0.918000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + -3.636000 (the counted weights) = -3.636000 → probability 0.0257

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.0727 to 0.0088, a spread of 0.0639. The result sits on a rounding boundary.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“About 80% of people in China are pro-AI while about 80% of people in the United States are against AI.” · 1 claim · 22 September 2026
“About 80% of people in China are pro-AI while about 80% of people in the United States are against AI.” · 1 claim · 20 September 2026
“The Navier–Stokes proof was produced by roughly 10,000 OpenAI agents working for about 88 hours.” · 25 claims · 20 September 2026
“From the Sept 2026 Moonshots podcast episode "AGI Has Arrived": OpenAI's agents solved the Navier-Stokes Millennium Prize problem in 88 hours with 10,000...” · 13 claims · 19 September 2026

Evidence for

Diamandis says China is over 80 per cent pro-AI and the US over 80 per cent against.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance WEAK Steps 2 Counted

Two survey-shaped figures given with no survey, question wording or date behind them.

Evidence against

Ipsos found 85% in China and 37% in the US agree AI products have more benefits than drawbacks.

From Ipsos AI Monitor 2026 Read 2026-09-20 Relevance STRONG Steps 1 Counted

On this Ipsos question 85% in China agree against 37% in the US, so the China half of the claim is roughly right but the US half is wrong. Nothing in the survey measures 80% of Americans as against AI: 36% say AI products make them excited and 50% say nervous, with the remainder split between neutral and negative rather than opposed. Note also that Pew's September 2026 global AI survey does not include China, so any Pew-based China-versus-US comparison is unsupportable.
In the survey 38 per cent of US respondents said yes, against 84 per cent in the comparison country.

From Asia is excited about AI, the U.S. not so much Read 2026-09-19 Relevance STRONG Steps 1 Counted

The passage bears directly on the claim and splits it. The first half approximately holds: 84 per cent is fairly described as about 80 per cent pro-AI. The second half does not. The survey asked whether respondents were excited by AI products, and 38 per cent of Americans said yes. Not saying yes is not the same as being against: the remaining 62 per cent includes anyone unsure, indifferent or unaware, and the survey does not measure opposition at all. So the claim converts a 38 per cent positive response into an 80 per cent negative one by two separate moves, treating non-excitement as opposition and then rounding 62 to 80. The symmetry the claim asserts, about 80 per cent each way, is an artefact of both moves and is not in the source.
The counted evidence reports excitement, not opposition: 38% of US respondents were excited, which does not mean 62% are against AI.

From Asia is excited about AI, the U.S. not so much Read 2026-09-19 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

'Not excited' is not 'against AI'; the claim converts a 38% excitement figure into an 80% opposition figure.
Excerpt compares 38% U.S. yes to 84%; it does not state China or that ~80% of Americans are against AI.

From Asia is excited about AI, the U.S. not so much Read 2026-09-19 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Claim asserts ~80% China pro-AI and ~80% US against AI; packet only gives 38% US yes vs 84%, with no China label and no ~80% against figure.

Qualifications

Stanford's AI Index found 84% in China and 38% in the US are excited by AI products.

From Asia is excited about AI, the U.S. not so much Read 2026-09-19 Relevance DIRECT Steps 1 Counted

Supports the China figure; the US figure measures 38% excited, which is not the same as 80% opposed.
The two survey figures counted on this card answer different Ipsos AI Monitor questions: 84% (China) / 38% (US) is the share saying AI products make them excited (Ipsos 2025 wave, via the AI Index), while 85% / 37% is the share agreeing AI products have more benefits than drawbacks (Ipsos AI Monitor 2026). They are not one survey and should not be read as a single result.

From AI Index Report 2026, Chapter 9: Public Opinion Read 2026-09-22 Relevance DIRECT Steps 1 Counted

Addresses open thread 01a0c15a-4204: the card previously gave no indication these are two questions.
One Stanford-linked 32-nation analysis reports positive views, not a pro-versus-against measure, and gives China 83% and the U.S. 39%.

From China 83%, US 39%: Asia Far More Optimistic About AI's Future Than West Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The source uses positive/excited wording and different values; the claim's pro-AI/against-AI wording and 80/80 figures are not interchangeable.
A separate 48,000-person KPMG-University of Melbourne survey reports China 85% positive and the U.S. 50%.

From China 83%, US 39%: Asia Far More Optimistic About AI's Future Than West Read 2026-09-28 Relevance MODERATE Steps 0 Counted

A separate survey has different values and population, showing that survey instrument and sampling context matter.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
56a5ef41		239faf8e

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

A thread is about how this was recorded, not about whether it is true. Settling one opens work or closes work and moves no probability.

Claim edges

From	Relationship	To
d7723645	NARROWS	4d1aae25

Review checklist

Review checks: 4 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	yes	fb973b6d
opposing search done	yes	44271d36
independence reviewed	yes	20e6715a
primary source reviewed	yes	e9f803bd

Summary

Contradicted. The main contradiction is: The counted evidence reports excitement, not opposition: 38% of US respondents were excited, which does not mean 62% are against AI. 49aea4d8

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 56a5ef41

Qualifier: A separate 48,000-person KPMG-University of Melbourne survey reports China 85% positive and the U.S. 50%. ffafc8f9

Qualifier: Stanford's AI Index found 84% in China and 38% in the US are excited by AI products. 5b58c92f

Qualifier: The two survey figures counted on this card answer different Ipsos AI Monitor questions: 84% (China) / 38% (US) is the share saying AI products make them excited (Ipsos 2025 wave, via the AI Index), while 85% / 37% is the share agreeing AI products have more benefits than drawbacks (Ipsos AI Monitor 2026). They are not one survey and should not be read as a single result. a52c6707

Qualifier: One Stanford-linked 32-nation analysis reports positive views, not a pro-versus-against measure, and gives China 83% and the U.S. 39%. beea3255

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
719	APPENDED
720	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
781	LINK_EVIDENCE	by b63200ce (accepted)
2983	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 03192ed8 (accepted)
4277	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 03192ed8 (accepted)
4688	TASK_RESULT	by e82bf250 (accepted)
6365	LINK_EVIDENCE	by bd44a4c4 (accepted)
6686	TASK_RESULT	by 8b5e81bf (accepted)
7720	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
7782	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "16fb6733-70c1-8c5f-821a-09884d1aae25",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "1163be15-389d-8c8b-8a0e-b6f88e893e27",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "3bcd201d-26f5-82b7-a76a-0d16ffafc8f9",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "0.540000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "1ebca775-4a76-801f-8e28-5f4942f27fd8",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "2168d38e-d3d0-8bd6-9643-1b776aca0a39",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "WEAK",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "SELF",
      "observation": "HEARSAY",
      "source_type": "VIDEO",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 2
    },
    {
      "link": "5bab5f8c-7d2b-8ed5-b197-caa48075bfad",
      "group": "978a7f87-71fb-8b1d-8bf6-bb2d7918bbad",
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "14eb2f88-1641-8b05-b682-e0d75b58c92f",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "1.530000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "61a99b22-cc72-8678-91c0-4de51570a2c0",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "a7806a6d-9899-8213-896c-ca0aa52c6707",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "1.530000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "86b9fdd0-5162-8e2d-8ac5-7184239faf8e",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "9531c79b-ea03-8270-94af-349c49aea4d8",
      "direction": "CONTRADICT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "a988be79-0200-844e-879f-d006570d44d6",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "3776cd54-c512-84f5-8ec2-fafbbeea3255",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "ad7487be-7cb1-8388-ae46-be13e9f803bd",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "d7a2f011-e7db-8d73-a131-6397835816b3",
      "direction": "CONTRADICT",
      "magnitude": "0.918000",
      "relevance": "STRONG",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "DATASET",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.918000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "kept": "86b9fdd0-5162-8e2d-8ac5-7184239faf8e",
      "link": "cceb6224-459a-8dc6-b124-dd0b3636aeba",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "30fcb685-e704-886d-8d9b-03b756a5ef41",
      "direction": "CONTRADICT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "ce644709-e59e-86bf-b89a-a86e8f821123",
      "group": "978a7f87-71fb-8b1d-8bf6-bb2d7918bbad",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "8ef2c7cb-aa7d-8e16-b595-f7c93073036f",
      "direction": "CONTRADICT",
      "magnitude": "0.918000",
      "relevance": "STRONG",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.918000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0639",
    "permissive": "0.0088",
    "conservative": "0.0727"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.0257",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "-3.636000",
  "snapshot_seq": 10878,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 0,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "1.00",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "CONTRADICTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "01a0bbf2-635f-7f13-9fcc-76fafb973b6d"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [
        "01a0bbf2-6327-7dd7-bf90-1ba344271d36"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "01a0c183-4ee0-7985-a29d-d21a20e6715a"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "ad7487be-7cb1-8388-ae46-be13e9f803bd"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 3,
  "rounding_boundary": true,
  "posterior_log_odds": "-3.636000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 7
}