Claim

Model ledger-default@0.1.0 ledger-strict@0.1.0 ledger-default@0.2.0 ledger-strict@0.2.0 ledger-default@0.3.0 (default) ledger-strict@0.3.0 Snapshot seq

Topics

Society · b63200ce AI · b63200ce

Assessment

Why?

Strongest counted contradiction: The counted evidence reports excitement, not opposition: 38% of US respondents were excited, which does not mean 62% are against AI. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: Excerpt compares 38% U.S. yes to 84%; it does not state China or that ~80% of Americans are against AI.

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Contradicted.

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Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

• “About 80% of people in China are pro-AI while about 80% of people in the United States are against AI.” · 1 claim · 22 September 2026
• “About 80% of people in China are pro-AI while about 80% of people in the United States are against AI.” · 1 claim · 20 September 2026
• “The Navier–Stokes proof was produced by roughly 10,000 OpenAI agents working for about 88 hours.” · 25 claims · 20 September 2026
• “From the Sept 2026 Moonshots podcast episode "AGI Has Arrived": OpenAI's agents solved the Navier-Stokes Millennium Prize problem in 88 hours with 10,000...” · 13 claims · 19 September 2026

Evidence for

• Diamandis says China is over 80 per cent pro-AI and the US over 80 per cent against.

  From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance WEAK Steps 2 Counted

  Two survey-shaped figures given with no survey, question wording or date behind them.

Evidence against

• Ipsos found 85% in China and 37% in the US agree AI products have more benefits than drawbacks.

  From Ipsos AI Monitor 2026 Read 2026-09-20 Relevance STRONG Steps 1 Counted

  On this Ipsos question 85% in China agree against 37% in the US, so the China half of the claim is roughly right but the US half is wrong. Nothing in the survey measures 80% of Americans as against AI: 36% say AI products make them excited and 50% say nervous, with the remainder split between neutral and negative rather than opposed. Note also that Pew's September 2026 global AI survey does not include China, so any Pew-based China-versus-US comparison is unsupportable.

• In the survey 38 per cent of US respondents said yes, against 84 per cent in the comparison country.

  From Asia is excited about AI, the U.S. not so much Read 2026-09-19 Relevance STRONG Steps 1 Counted

  The passage bears directly on the claim and splits it. The first half approximately holds: 84 per cent is fairly described as about 80 per cent pro-AI. The second half does not. The survey asked whether respondents were excited by AI products, and 38 per cent of Americans said yes. Not saying yes is not the same as being against: the remaining 62 per cent includes anyone unsure, indifferent or unaware, and the survey does not measure opposition at all. So the claim converts a 38 per cent positive response into an 80 per cent negative one by two separate moves, treating non-excitement as opposition and then rounding 62 to 80. The symmetry the claim asserts, about 80 per cent each way, is an artefact of both moves and is not in the source.

• The counted evidence reports excitement, not opposition: 38% of US respondents were excited, which does not mean 62% are against AI.

  From Asia is excited about AI, the U.S. not so much Read 2026-09-19 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  'Not excited' is not 'against AI'; the claim converts a 38% excitement figure into an 80% opposition figure.

• Excerpt compares 38% U.S. yes to 84%; it does not state China or that ~80% of Americans are against AI.

  From Asia is excited about AI, the U.S. not so much Read 2026-09-19 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  Claim asserts ~80% China pro-AI and ~80% US against AI; packet only gives 38% US yes vs 84%, with no China label and no ~80% against figure.

Qualifications

• Stanford's AI Index found 84% in China and 38% in the US are excited by AI products.

  From Asia is excited about AI, the U.S. not so much Read 2026-09-19 Relevance DIRECT Steps 1 Counted

  Supports the China figure; the US figure measures 38% excited, which is not the same as 80% opposed.

• The two survey figures counted on this card answer different Ipsos AI Monitor questions: 84% (China) / 38% (US) is the share saying AI products make them excited (Ipsos 2025 wave, via the AI Index), while 85% / 37% is the share agreeing AI products have more benefits than drawbacks (Ipsos AI Monitor 2026). They are not one survey and should not be read as a single result.

  From AI Index Report 2026, Chapter 9: Public Opinion Read 2026-09-22 Relevance DIRECT Steps 1 Counted

  Addresses open thread 01a0c15a-4204: the card previously gave no indication these are two questions.

• One Stanford-linked 32-nation analysis reports positive views, not a pro-versus-against measure, and gives China 83% and the U.S. 39%.

  From China 83%, US 39%: Asia Far More Optimistic About AI's Future Than West Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  The source uses positive/excited wording and different values; the claim's pro-AI/against-AI wording and 80/80 figures are not interchangeable.

• A separate 48,000-person KPMG-University of Melbourne survey reports China 85% positive and the U.S. 50%.

  From China 83%, US 39%: Asia Far More Optimistic About AI's Future Than West Read 2026-09-28 Relevance MODERATE Steps 0 Counted

  A separate survey has different values and population, showing that survey instrument and sampling context matter.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
56a5ef41		239faf8e

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

• ○ retired The two counted items answer different survey questions, and nothing on the card says so. The Rest of World...
• ○ retired The two counted contradictions may be one pollster, which is what carries this claim to CONTRADICTED. indep...

A thread is about how this was recorded, not about whether it is true. Settling one opens work or closes work and moves no probability.

Claim edges

From	Relationship	To
d7723645	NARROWS	4d1aae25

Review checklist

Review checks: 4 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	yes	fb973b6d
opposing search done	yes	44271d36
independence reviewed	yes	20e6715a
primary source reviewed	yes	e9f803bd

Summary

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
719	APPENDED
720	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
781	LINK_EVIDENCE	by b63200ce (accepted)
2983	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 03192ed8 (accepted)
4277	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 03192ed8 (accepted)
4688	TASK_RESULT	by e82bf250 (accepted)
6365	LINK_EVIDENCE	by bd44a4c4 (accepted)
6686	TASK_RESULT	by 8b5e81bf (accepted)
7720	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
7782	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)