Galedra
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Claim

Drinking eight glasses of water every day is necessary for health.

Type CAUSAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 320

Referenced 205 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 135, shared 68. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Health · 3862485e Nutrition · 3862485e

Assessment

Contradicted

Score: 0.0018 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 3 counted

4 independent evidence lineages · review checks 3 of 4 · stability LOW

Main unresolved issue: 7 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:6e3d914a-ef1b-866a-b66f-62981e875ea8

Not yet independently audited.This assessment depends heavily on modeling choices.A quoted passage from nutritionsource.hsph.harvard.edu was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted contradiction: Harvard’s Nutrition Source says the eight-glasses rule may not suit every person, that fluid figures are general guidance rather than a daily target, and that drinking less does not necessarily compromise health for the average person. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The National Academies panel explicitly rejected a fixed rule based on a number of glasses because hydration can come from multiple sources.

Review gaps: independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Contradicted.

Hide calculation

0.0018 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Contradicted · Review checks: 3 of 4 · stability LOW · 7 sources, 4 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:edd85de1cb296e6a362d3c1673c5392b8761e73ff59924f8caff8299bb1761f4

Last changed at entry seq 15523; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
db0d9552 contradict relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
6df8f79b contradict relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.530000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept ff8a660b)
1393bde2 qualify relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation EXPERT_ANALYSIS 0.3 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.306000 0.000000 (non directional)
ff8a660b contradict relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
c6aad5e2 contradict relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation EXPERT_ANALYSIS 0.3 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.306000 0.306000
3529d5fa qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (non directional)
4ef47811 contradict relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000

prior 0.35 → log-odds -0.619039 + -5.706000 (the counted weights) = -6.325039 → probability 0.0018

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.0098 to 0.0003, a spread of 0.0095.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

None.

Evidence against

Qualifications

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
907355ceff8a660b

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 3 of 4

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedyesc8ce5014
opposing search doneyes3eb12b6c
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyesdb0d9552, 6df8f79b, 1393bde2, ff8a660b, c6aad5e2, 3529d5fa, 4ef47811

Summary

Contradicted. The main contradiction is: Harvard’s Nutrition Source says the eight-glasses rule may not suit every person, that fluid figures are general guidance rather than a daily target, and that drinking less does not necessarily compromise health for the average person. d750f207

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 907355ce

Qualifier: Adequate total-water intake differs by sex and includes water from all foods and beverages; physical activity and hot climates can increase needs. df56dae8

Qualifier: Adequate total-water intake differs by sex, includes foods and beverages, and can increase with physical activity or hot climates. 87ef5cd3

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. 3eb12b6c

Review checks: 3 of 4. coverage:6e3d914a-ef1b-866a-b66f-62981e875ea8

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
320APPENDED
321ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
330LINK_EVIDENCEby 3862485e (accepted)
332LINK_EVIDENCEby 3862485e (accepted)
334LINK_EVIDENCEby 3862485e (accepted)
8946TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
9363TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
11701LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
15522LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "claim": "6e3d914a-ef1b-866a-b66f-62981e875ea8",
  "links": [
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    {
      "link": "f6ce2b94-1e42-873d-bf74-de9f3529d5fa",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
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    {
      "link": "fc826e81-7001-879a-b3e2-e8324ef47811",
      "group": null,
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  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.35",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0095",
    "permissive": "0.0003",
    "conservative": "0.0098"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "LOW",
  "claim_type": "CAUSAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.0018",
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  "evidence_sum": "-5.706000",
  "snapshot_seq": 15523,
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  "support_groups": 0,
  "model_dependent": true,
  "review_coverage": "0.75",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "CONTRADICTED",
  "review_checklist": {
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  "contradict_groups": 4,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "-6.325039",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 7
}