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Claim

Moonshots Live tickets cost $1,500, with 100 scholarships set aside for young builders.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 2641

a comma-separated series may list several propositions

Referenced 150 times: checked 4, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 89, shared 57. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Prices and inflation · 03192ed8 Education · 03192ed8

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9955 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 3 counted

3 independent evidence lineages · review checks 3 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 5 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:db7f8acd-084f-8821-a1fb-952ce8f243a4

Not yet independently audited.A quoted passage from moonshots.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.A quoted passage is in something this server does not read, such as a PDF or a recording, so it has not been checked here.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The event reserves 100 discounted scholarship seats for builders under 28 and students. weight 1.800000 evidence

Review gaps: independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9955 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 3 of 4 · stability HIGH · 6 sources, 3 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:f5f02994a82b0c743d5ad75b3908731ef0f95cc82612a349cba89085b72d30fd

Last changed at entry seq 13132; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
a27916ee support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
7ba4bb76 qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000 (non directional)
f839b4c8 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
b44e8017 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000
13008762 support relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation EYEWITNESS 0.4 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000
cdca94e5 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 5.400000 (the counted weights) = 5.400000 → probability 0.9955

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9777 to 0.9991, a spread of 0.0214.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 3 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedyes93840b04
opposing search doneyes9d637be3
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyesa27916ee, cdca94e5

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The event reserves 100 discounted scholarship seats for builders under 28 and students. ebf2b50f

Qualifier: The passage confirms a $1,500 price tag and a hundred scholarships for young builders, but never names Moonshots Live. 7b2d0e55

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 9d637be3

Review checks: 3 of 4. coverage:db7f8acd-084f-8821-a1fb-952ce8f243a4

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
2641APPENDED
2642ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
2735LINK_EVIDENCEby 03192ed8 (accepted)
5459LINK_EVIDENCEby 56fe4c61 (accepted)
5465LINK_EVIDENCEby 56fe4c61 (accepted)
6662TASK_RESULTby 8b5e81bf (accepted)
8300TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
13131LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "db7f8acd-084f-8821-a1fb-952ce8f243a4",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "286212a4-50e0-8cd7-8b85-400aa27916ee",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
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      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "7a6ed109-4309-8416-bf2c-13197ba4bb76",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
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      "evidence": "ff3a9d8d-81d7-8244-8c34-36537b2d0e55",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "SELF",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "VIDEO",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
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      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "8a63c35d-70e8-82ab-b3d9-bad0f839b4c8",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "c6ef93ff-57fb-8d95-bd27-b47c1cbad0d2",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
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      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "WEBSITE",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "a0693396-b2ae-81a6-a30c-257db44e8017",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "f9223a1f-1e4d-8420-9640-d3d54eedeb6c",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
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      "source_type": "VIDEO",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
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      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "cf6bb5cf-e770-843f-a348-dcbf13008762",
      "group": "d62f17be-c315-8a14-9bfc-f8a51a228a2f",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "3a92022a-ec47-859d-9201-dff61006debe",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "STRONG",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "SELF",
      "observation": "EYEWITNESS",
      "source_type": "VIDEO",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "ed817b34-5683-86d4-a208-66b8cdca94e5",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "adbbd81b-db5c-8a06-bee5-daae454dd7da",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0214",
    "permissive": "0.9991",
    "conservative": "0.9777"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9955",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "5.400000",
  "snapshot_seq": 13132,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 3,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.75",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "01a0bc55-1f46-7b19-bfc8-a3b393840b04"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [
        "01a0bc55-1f36-7960-a71f-729b9d637be3"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
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        "ed817b34-5683-86d4-a208-66b8cdca94e5"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "5.400000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 5
}