Claim

Polymarket put the probability of GPT-6.1's release at 48 per cent by the end of October 2026 and 85 per cent by the end of September 2026.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 2561

27 words; atomic claims are usually under 25a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluable

Referenced 145 times: checked 3, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 98, shared 44. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

AI · 03192ed8 Markets · 03192ed8

Assessment

Contradicted

Score: 0.0346 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 2 counted

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 2 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 5 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:ee083a25-fe8f-8d9f-98a1-be4b62235934

Not yet independently audited.A quoted passage from coinrithm.com and polymarket.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.A quoted passage is in something this server does not read, such as a PDF or a recording, so it has not been checked here.

Why?

Strongest counted contradiction: As of September 28, 2026, the market page shows 58% by October 31 and 27% by September 30, not the claim’s 48% and 85%. weight 1.800000 evidence

Review gaps: independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Leans contradicted.

Hide calculation

0.0346 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Contradicted · Review checks: 2 of 4 · stability HIGH · 6 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:f639bc284abbae6974d8e8246cc8fe5feb1780bc7c6410c415ad1bf3906a837e

Last changed at entry seq 10696; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
2b3a417a support	relevance WEAK 0.2 × observation HEARSAY 0.1 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000
73affbc6 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000
d0708692 qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (non directional)
495dd090 qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (non directional)
3d7773c7 contradict	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
da0b8957 contradict	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.530000	1.530000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + -3.330000 (the counted weights) = -3.330000 → probability 0.0346

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.0886 to 0.0130, a spread of 0.0756.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“Polymarket put the probability of GPT-6.1's release at 48 per cent by the end of October 2026 and 85 per cent by the end of September 2026.” · 1 claim · 28 September 2026
“Polymarket put the probability of GPT-6.1's release at 48 per cent by the end of October 2026 and 85 per cent by the end of September 2026.” · 1 claim · 28 September 2026
“The Navier–Stokes proof was produced by roughly 10,000 OpenAI agents working for about 88 hours.” · 23 claims · 20 September 2026

Evidence for

Diamandis reads Polymarket odds of 48 per cent by end of October and 85 per cent by end of September.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance WEAK Steps 1 Counted

As read on air the two figures are incoherent: a lower probability is given for the later date, so at least one date or number is misspoken.
The transcription states a 48% prediction by the end of October and an 85% prediction by the end of September.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance DIRECT Steps 1 Counted

Evidence against

As of September 28, 2026, the market page shows 58% by October 31 and 27% by September 30, not the claim’s 48% and 85%.

From GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date? - Polymarket Odds Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The current provider-backed market display gives different odds and labels the later date December 31 at 94%; historical odds may have changed, but the claim provides no snapshot date.
The current Polymarket page shows an Astra 6.1+ market at about 58% for October 31 and 94% for December 31, not the claim's 48% and 85% figures or its September endpoint.

From GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...? Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 1 Counted

The market page concerns GPT Astra 6.1+, so it directly documents a related but not identical market and snapshot; it conflicts with the quoted figures and dates.

Qualifications

The passage cites 48% by end of October and 85% by end of September, but names neither Polymarket, GPT-6.1, nor 2026.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance DIRECT Steps 1 Counted

Numbers match; predictor, subject, and year are absent.
Diamandis reads Polymarket's prediction of 48% by end of October and 85% by end of September.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The claim specifies GPT-6.1's release and pins the dates to 2026; the excerpt mentions neither the subject nor the year.

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 2 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	yes	3b0d495e
opposing search done	yes	9acee17a
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	no

Summary

Contradicted. The main contradiction is: As of September 28, 2026, the market page shows 58% by October 31 and 27% by September 30, not the claim’s 48% and 85%. 6acfcfac

Qualifier: Diamandis reads Polymarket's prediction of 48% by end of October and 85% by end of September. 55d767fa

Qualifier: The passage cites 48% by end of October and 85% by end of September, but names neither Polymarket, GPT-6.1, nor 2026. 5d48f584

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. 9acee17a

Review checks: 2 of 4. coverage:ee083a25-fe8f-8d9f-98a1-be4b62235934

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
2561	APPENDED
2562	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
2695	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 03192ed8 (accepted)
6608	TASK_RESULT	by 8b5e81bf (accepted)
7050	TASK_RESULT	by 8b5e81bf (accepted)
8240	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
10013	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
10029	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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