Claim

Model ledger-default@0.1.0 ledger-strict@0.1.0 ledger-default@0.2.0 ledger-strict@0.2.0 ledger-default@0.3.0 (default) ledger-strict@0.3.0 Snapshot seq

Topics

AI · 03192ed8 Markets · 03192ed8

Assessment

Why?

Strongest counted contradiction: As of September 28, 2026, the market page shows 58% by October 31 and 27% by September 30, not the claim’s 48% and 85%. weight 1.800000 evidence

Review gaps: independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Leans contradicted.

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Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

• “Polymarket put the probability of GPT-6.1's release at 48 per cent by the end of October 2026 and 85 per cent by the end of September 2026.” · 1 claim · 28 September 2026
• “Polymarket put the probability of GPT-6.1's release at 48 per cent by the end of October 2026 and 85 per cent by the end of September 2026.” · 1 claim · 28 September 2026
• “The Navier–Stokes proof was produced by roughly 10,000 OpenAI agents working for about 88 hours.” · 23 claims · 20 September 2026

Evidence for

• Diamandis reads Polymarket odds of 48 per cent by end of October and 85 per cent by end of September.

  From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance WEAK Steps 1 Counted

  As read on air the two figures are incoherent: a lower probability is given for the later date, so at least one date or number is misspoken.

• The transcription states a 48% prediction by the end of October and an 85% prediction by the end of September.

  From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance DIRECT Steps 1 Counted

Evidence against

• As of September 28, 2026, the market page shows 58% by October 31 and 27% by September 30, not the claim’s 48% and 85%.

  From GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date? - Polymarket Odds Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  The current provider-backed market display gives different odds and labels the later date December 31 at 94%; historical odds may have changed, but the claim provides no snapshot date.

• The current Polymarket page shows an Astra 6.1+ market at about 58% for October 31 and 94% for December 31, not the claim's 48% and 85% figures or its September endpoint.

  From GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...? Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 1 Counted

  The market page concerns GPT Astra 6.1+, so it directly documents a related but not identical market and snapshot; it conflicts with the quoted figures and dates.

Qualifications

• The passage cites 48% by end of October and 85% by end of September, but names neither Polymarket, GPT-6.1, nor 2026.

  From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance DIRECT Steps 1 Counted

  Numbers match; predictor, subject, and year are absent.

• Diamandis reads Polymarket's prediction of 48% by end of October and 85% by end of September.

  From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  The claim specifies GPT-6.1's release and pins the dates to 2026; the excerpt mentions neither the subject nor the year.

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 2 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	yes	3b0d495e
opposing search done	yes	9acee17a
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	no

Summary

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
2561	APPENDED
2562	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
2695	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 03192ed8 (accepted)
6608	TASK_RESULT	by 8b5e81bf (accepted)
7050	TASK_RESULT	by 8b5e81bf (accepted)
8240	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
10013	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
10029	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)