Claim

Polymarket put the probability of Anthropic releasing Fable 5.2 at 43 per cent by 31 October 2026 and 86 per cent by 31 December 2026.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 2565

a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluable

Referenced 140 times: checked 3, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 94, shared 43. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

AI · 03192ed8 Markets · 03192ed8

Assessment

Contradicted

Score: 0.0346 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 2 counted

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 2 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 5 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:0bc88d4f-f583-8fb5-a839-4de31f91ef76

Not yet independently audited.A quoted passage from coinrithm.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.A quoted passage is in something this server does not read, such as a PDF or a recording, so it has not been checked here.

Why?

Strongest counted contradiction: As of September 28, 2026, the market page shows 71% by October 31 and 94% by December 31, not the claim’s 43% and 86%. weight 1.800000 evidence

Review gaps: independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Leans contradicted.

Hide calculation

0.0346 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Contradicted · Review checks: 2 of 4 · stability HIGH · 6 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:6136d9d0a1313e8511d5c4cc4854d32db7790ad56033326639402e7e9fdccbe6

Last changed at entry seq 10700; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
c4675f11 contradict	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
d35a24bb qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (non directional)
f43239de contradict	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.530000	1.530000
1e2cba9a support	relevance WEAK 0.2 × observation HEARSAY 0.1 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000
fb0fd40c qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (non directional)
a3ca355f support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance SELF 0.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + -3.330000 (the counted weights) = -3.330000 → probability 0.0346

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.0886 to 0.0130, a spread of 0.0756.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“Polymarket put the probability of Anthropic releasing Fable 5.2 at 43 per cent by 31 October 2026 and 86 per cent by 31 December 2026.” · 1 claim · 28 September 2026
“Polymarket put the probability of Anthropic releasing Fable 5.2 at 43 per cent by 31 October 2026 and 86 per cent by 31 December 2026.” · 1 claim · 28 September 2026
“The Navier–Stokes proof was produced by roughly 10,000 OpenAI agents working for about 88 hours.” · 23 claims · 20 September 2026

Evidence for

Diamandis reads Polymarket odds for Fable 5.2 of 43 per cent and 86 per cent.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance WEAK Steps 1 Counted

The speaker corrects the second date mid-sentence.
The excerpt gives Anthropic Fable 5.2 odds of 43% by October 31 and 86% by December 31, 2026.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance DIRECT Steps 1 Counted

Evidence against

As of September 28, 2026, the market page shows 71% by October 31 and 94% by December 31, not the claim’s 43% and 86%.

From Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date? - Polymarket noteringen Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The current market display differs from the claim; without a snapshot date, the claim cannot be checked as a historical odds report.
The current Polymarket page shows the Fable 5.2+ market at about 74% for October 31 and 95% for December 31, not the claim’s 43% and 86% figures.

From Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...? Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 1 Counted

The live market snapshot differs from the claim’s cited probabilities; because prediction-market prices change, this is a time-specific comparison.

Qualifications

The passage gives 43% by October 31 and 86% by December 31 for Anthropic's Fable 5.2, but names no Polymarket, release, or year.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance DIRECT Steps 1 Counted

Subject and numbers match; predictor, event, and year are absent.
Diamandis reads Polymarket odds for Anthropic's Fable 5.2: 43% by October 31st and 86% by December 31st.

From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The claim pins the dates to 2026; the excerpt only gives 'October 31st' and 'December 31st' with no year.

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 2 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	yes	acce4d24
opposing search done	yes	7ec8e2b1
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	no

Summary

Contradicted. The main contradiction is: As of September 28, 2026, the market page shows 71% by October 31 and 94% by December 31, not the claim’s 43% and 86%. e44e21d4

Qualifier: The passage gives 43% by October 31 and 86% by December 31 for Anthropic's Fable 5.2, but names no Polymarket, release, or year. 8461cc23

Qualifier: Diamandis reads Polymarket odds for Anthropic's Fable 5.2: 43% by October 31st and 86% by December 31st. 0e4ef23e

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. 7ec8e2b1

Review checks: 2 of 4. coverage:0bc88d4f-f583-8fb5-a839-4de31f91ef76

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
2565	APPENDED
2566	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
2697	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 03192ed8 (accepted)
6610	TASK_RESULT	by 8b5e81bf (accepted)
7052	TASK_RESULT	by 8b5e81bf (accepted)
8244	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
10021	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
10038	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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